Under-pressure Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has been warned Labour is facing the “biggest kicking in its history” in Wales after a poll showed support crashing to 14% ahead of the 2026 Senedd election. The ITV Cymru Wales, YouGov, and Cardiff University survey places Plaid Cymru at 30% and Reform at 29%, threatening Labour’s dominance since devolution in 1999 and every UK general election since 1922. Former Welsh minister Mick Antoniw called the figures a “wake-up call” for Labour in Wales and Westminster, with Sir Keir already hampered by the resignations of deputy Angela Rayner and US Ambassador Peter Mandelson.
Mr Antoniw told BBC’s Politics Wales: “We have to recognise the things that we have to do to be real Labour.” He urged a “clear vision – a vision of hope, a vision of change,” praising “really good things” from Sir Keir’s Government but slamming early errors that have eroded trust. On whether the PM’s grasps the crisis, he said: “I think they are beginning to get it.” One unnamed senior Labour source added that the party was bracing for “the biggest kicking in our history”.
First Minister Eluned Morgan has refused to rule out a deal with Plaid Cymru, telling the BBC in August: “I’m not going to deal with that situation until we know where we stand.”
She insisted she was focused on ensuring her party “is top when it comes to the election”, adding: “That’s the important thing. That’s what we’re working towards. But what is important is that people understand the threat of Reform. If they come in what would happen to our public services?
“I am very keen to ensure that I will continue as First Minister of Wales.”
An anonymous Labour MS described the party’s mood as “grim,” saying: “The tide has turned against us.” They cited fallout from ex-leader Vaughan Gething’s scandals and the death of MS Hefin David, noting Ms Morgan’s struggle to reverse the slide.
A Labour grandee echoed Mr Antoniw, blaming “the inadequacies of London Labour” and the Treasury’s tight spending under Starmer.
Dr Jac Larner of Cardiff University said: “Welsh Labour is paying the price for Starmer’s unpopularity.”
He noted voters are turning to Plaid to counter Reform’s rise.
A senior Welsh Labour MP called for a “fixed and focused” campaign, while a source close to Ms Morgan urged Welsh MPs to confront Starmer, saying: “If they said to Keir, ‘you’re going to lose Wales, do you realise that?’ then he might start listening.”
Ms Morgan has ditched ex-MP Wayne David as her top adviser in an apparent attempt to sharpen focus.
A UK Labour source defended Westminster, stating: “Individuals who attack the UK government must take personal responsibility for the past 26 years and the challenges we now face,” and cited extra rail funding for Wales.
Health Secretary Jeremy Miles, one of 14 Labour MSs stepping down in May, said: “Polls are a reminder that the election is a choice for people in Wales.”
With Mr Antoniw’s warning of a historic defeat and Ms Morgan’s pledge to fight on, Labour faces a brutal reckoning.
The 2026 election could reshape Welsh politics and jeopardize Starmer’s UK leadership.
