Amit Segal is the proprietor of the It’s Noon In Israel newsletter and one of Israel’s most knowledgeable journalists. In today’s newsletter — a few minutes old as I write — he declares “The Gaza War Is Over.” I have borrowed the thumbnail photo on the home page of a hostage family in Washington from today’s newsletter (photo credited to Amichai Stein). I thought readers might find his analysis of interest:
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It’s Thursday, October 9, and as I drove to work this morning, I heard something strange on the radio, and then I realized: for the first time in 734 days, I was hearing pure, unrestrained joy. Finally, Israel and Hamas have struck an agreement to end the war and return the hostages home.
There’s a lot to discuss here, and it’s very much still a developing situation, so let’s go through what you need to know. As of writing, the deal was set to be signed at midday Israel time, with the ceasefire in Gaza going into effect once Benjamin Netanyahu’s government approves it this evening.
According to Donald Trump, the hostages will come home on Monday, including “the bodies of the dead.” Others, however, have suggested that they may return to Israel as early as Saturday or Sunday. Unfortunately, it currently appears that there are eight or nine bodies of dead hostages that Hamas simply cannot find, and as a result, they will not be returned to Israel.
So, what happens once the hostages whose locations are known are home? There’s no phase two of the deal, that’s for sure. Yes, phase two might happen someday, but it’s unrelated to what’s just been signed, which is a hostage release deal—and one that doesn’t say anything about the future.
Theoretically, fantasies could come true: Emiratis and allies dismantling terror tunnels, and an international body formed to oversee Gaza, with Tony Blair as its governor. But for now, these are not part of the negotiations. What we currently have is a hostage release deal and a ceasefire while talks continue in good faith.
That, of course, raises the question: who decides if talks are happening in good faith?
Under Trump, Israel has previously said that negotiations aren’t genuine or productive, and resumed fighting. This time, however, I don’t think we’ll see IDF tanks rushing back into Gaza, like what happened when the last two ceasefires ended.
Another question: are we moving towards the Lebanese model? In other words, the IDF stays beyond the international border and strikes targets from the air when it detects military buildups or threats. When it comes to attempts to harm Israelis, there’s no grey area. What we’re talking about, however, is military buildup efforts, such as digging new tunnels or building more arms-producing lathes.
This is what Israel wants to retain the ability to strike, and the assessment in Jerusalem is that Trump will approve it.
As for the withdrawal from Gaza, the IDF will leave 47 percent of the strip, a slight increase from the initial 43 percent that was reported. In other words, for now, it will retain control of more than half of Gaza. Once that takes place, talks will be based on the principle of further Israeli withdrawals in return for demilitarization. But don’t get too excited. Hamas is unlikely to disarm willingly, and the Emiratis and other international forces won’t achieve that quickly either.
So, is this peace? I’ll admit that when I hear people saying that Israel is “making peace with its enemies,” I smell the Oslo Accords in the air and all the implications it carries. This is not peace, and Hamas is still Israel’s bitter enemy—it has simply been brought to its knees.
