In the aftermath of the Jay Jones texting scandal, one of the biggest questions people had – aside from wondering if he would drop out of the race – was if it would impact not just the race for attorney general but also the gubernatorial and lieutenant governor races.
Fresh polling that was released Saturday indicates that it has. Before we get to that, though, let’s quickly recap another poll that was a strong indicator that the scandal had damaged Jones.
As RedState previously reported, there were signs early on that it had hurt Jones and helped GOP Attorney General Jason Miyares. The Jones campaign released internal polling on October 8th, five days after the texts were published, showing him up by only one point – a statistical tie. As we noted, internal polls are notorious for often showing their candidate in a stronger position than they actually are, which meant that Jones was, in reality, probably behind by that point in the race, similar to the McAuliffe 2021 implosion.
READ MORE: Code Red for VA Dems: Internal Polling From Jay Jones’s Campaign Confirms the Crap Has Hit the Fan
Trafalgar released new numbers on Saturday that confirmed Miyares had surged and was indeed now ahead of Jones, in a poll taken from the 8th through the 10th:
VIRGINIA POLL – Attorney General
🟥 Jason Miyares: 48.9% [+3.9]
🟦 Jay Jones: 43.1% [-5.7][+/- shift vs 9/29-10/1]
——
Trafalgar | 10/8-10 | 1,066 LV https://t.co/Wpx41kdG4y pic.twitter.com/2BUZ0S0QsA— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 12, 2025
In another positive development, there was also notable movement in the gubernatorial race and the lieutenant governor race, with both races tightening in comparison to Trafalgar’s previous poll, which was taken before the texting scandal broke and before the debate between Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and Abigail Spanberger(D), where the former Congresswoman did not have a good night at all:
Trafalgar poll | 10/8-10/10 LV
Virginia Governor
🟦Abigail Spanberger 48% (+1)
🟥Winsome Earle-Sears 45% (+3)
⬜️Donna Charles 2% (won’t be on the ballot/endorsed Spanberger)
—
Virginia Lt Governor
🟦Ghazala Hashmi 47% (-1)
🟥John Reid 46% (+2)
—
Virginia AG
🟥Jason Miyares 49%…— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) October 11, 2025
SEE ALSO: Winsome Earle-Sears Makes Her Move After Abigail Spanberger’s Disastrous Debate Performance
As both Earle-Sears and Miyares have noted, these races have gone from being about the issues to also being about character and who is best suited from a moral standpoint to hold these positions, to represent the people of the commonwealth.
Though strong arguments could be made before the news of the Jones texts broke on how Virginia Democrats were unfit for statewide office, how they’ve responded in the aftermath has just put a finer point on it.
Jay Jones not only thinks he’s above the law (read more on that here), but he also thinks it’s okay to fantasize about killing your political opponents and their children, and (allegedly) about cops dying. Abigail Spanberger not only refuses to distance herself from Jones, but she can’t even be bothered to show any emotion or respond to questions about how she would feel if her own children became victims as a result of the harmful policies she supports, like boys in girls’ locker rooms.
The statewide Democrat nominees in Virginia are counting on Democrat privilege to carry them through the turbulence of this race and on to victory. But the state is only about halfway through its early voting period, so there is plenty of time between now and Election Day for Virginia voters to make their voices heard, and to do what they did in 2021: Send Democrats packing.
Let’s go!
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