The share of 12th graders who say they plan to get married has declined precipitously among girls, and fewer of them are interested in having children, too, according to a new report from the Pew Research Center.
Data for the report was collected by the University of Michigan’s Monitoring the Future project, which is an ongoing study of the behaviors, attitudes and values of Americans from adolescence through adulthood. The study surveys more than 25,000 eighth, 10th, and 12th-grade students annually.
Pew researchers identified the massive shift in thinking among 12th-grade girls after comparing survey responses of 12th graders in 1993 to the responses of 12th graders in 2023.
The data show that overall, 67% of America’s 12th graders in 2023 say they will likely choose to get married someday, compared to 80% in 1993. Another 24% in 2023 weren’t sure whether they would choose to get married, an increase from the 16% who said the same in 1993. The share of students in the cohort who said they will not get married increased from 5% to 9% over the period.
When the data is broken down by gender, however, more boys (74%) than girls (61%) said in 2023 that they are likely to get married. In 1993, 83% of 12th-grade girls said they would more likely get married someday, compared to 76% of boys.
Even if they do get married, only 51% of 12th graders in 2023 said they were very likely to stay married to the same person for life. In 1993, this share was 59%. Less than half of 12th graders in 2023, some 48%, also stated that they were very likely to want to have children compared with 64% in 1993.
In a separate report on marriage trends, Barna found that only 46% of American adults are married today compared to some 66% in 1950. Most unmarried adults, however, still expressed a desire to marry.
Some 81% of U.S. adults expressed belief in marriage, but they are rethinking what that looks like in modern life.
“Today’s families are navigating delayed marriage, steady divorce rates, growing acceptance of cohabitation and renewed interest in remarriage. Each of these patterns carries implications for how churches prepare couples for marriage, support those in crisis and walk alongside people rebuilding life after divorce,” Barna researchers said, reflecting on new data from The State of Today’s Family report.
The report noted that the declining share of married U.S. adults today is largely driven by the “never-married adults.”
“Younger generations are postponing marriage longer than before. Since 1950, the average age at which adults are first getting married has increased by about eight years — from 22.8 to 30.2 years old for men and from 20.3 to 28.6 years old for women,” Barna researchers note. “For ministry leaders, this signals the importance of addressing single adulthood not as a ‘waiting room,’ but as a formative life stage deserving care, community and discipleship.”
Other relationship trends affecting marriage rates include the small but growing trend of couples cohabiting. About 8% of U.S. adults are living with a partner outside of marriage today. In 1970, this share was almost zero.
“What’s more significant is the shift in social attitudes,” Barna researchers said, noting that 58% of all adults, including 42% of practicing Christians, now say it’s “wise” to live with someone before marriage.
“This presents both a pastoral challenge and an invitation: how can churches teach a countercultural view of commitment while engaging couples with empathy rather than judgment?” Barna researchers said.
Barna also noted that while 18% of U.S. adults reported getting divorced at some point, about 55% of them have remarried. Christians were found to get divorced almost as often as the general adult population, but were more likely to remarry.
“Christians are not likely to stay divorced; overall, 58% of Christians who have been divorced say they have remarried,” Barna researchers noted. “The effect is that Christians remain more likely than their peers of other faith groups to be married, whether once or multiple times.”
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