Iran’s escalating protests risk tipping into full-scale civil war, potentially handing power to a military dictator and destabilising the Middle East with severe knock-on effects for the West, a former British defence minister has warned. Tobias Ellwood, ex-chair of the Commons Defence Select Committee, said the current unrest represents a ratcheting “drumbeat” of dissent that has grown from isolated grievances a decade ago, through middle-class anger, to the women-led 2022 Mahsa Amini revolt.
Mr Ellwood highlighted how the regime has historically managed each wave by clamping down hard before granting concessions, such as relaxed hijab rules. He told the Express: “Each time it ratchets up, but each time the regime gives a little bit as well. It’s becoming easier in that way. So in a way, it’s been managed, but it’s never tipped over the balance, simply because the control, the regime, the size of the armed forces, is just so overwhelming.”
He continued: “It’s very, very difficult indeed, but you then get a backlash. So we’ll have to see where this goes. I suspect that it won’t be a massive turning point because the regime sort of came together.”
He cautioned against assuming regime change would bring immediate improvement, pointing out that the West often fails to consider the “day after” a revolution.
Mr Ellwood, who is now a Distinguished Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) said: “We often just think, ‘The regime is bad; get rid of them’. But you get rid of this regime, who will step into those shoes? You could get either a more religious leader or something the same, or more than likely—because the power and the guns lie within the armed forces, the Revolutionary Guard—you would actually end up with a dictator coming in, a bit like Saddam Hussein, and then there’ll be long civil war.”
The former minister further suggested that external threats, like recent Israeli strikes, often trigger a “rallying around the flag” effect that bolsters the leadership.
Mr Ellwood noted: “When a country is attacked by Israel, there’s a natural rallying around it. We saw this with Tito in Yugoslavia, who was very unpopular, yet every time Russia or the Soviet Union flexed its muscles, there was support for him.”
He added: “I see this as the general population testing this regime further. They will clamp down, but then they will grant more concessions.”
Iranians themselves fear the unknown aftermath, he argued, noting a hesitancy to trade the current status quo for total chaos.
Mr Ellwood stated: “People are very conscious of ‘what next’, even in this country. Within Iran, they are asking very much what follows, and that can be quite scary. At the moment, at least, if you get concessions, you move the dial a bit, but the country doesn’t then implode.”
He warned: “But if there’s full-scale civil war in Iran, that will be miserable for everybody. Then you’re then prone to, what then will other countries like Israel do?”
Mr Ellwood’s warning comes as nationwide protests, sparked by the rial’s plunge to around 1.4 million to the dollar and inflation exceeding 40 %, enter their sixth day. The unrest began among Tehran bazaar merchants but has spread to universities and provincial cities, with chants of “Death to the dictator” aimed at Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
At least six people have been killed in clashes, including in Azna and Lordegan where security forces reportedly opened fire. Rights groups report higher tolls, while state media confirmed deaths among protesters and Basij militiamen. Arrests have surged, though President Masoud Pezeshkian has offered dialogue on “legitimate” economic grievances.
The crisis intensified yesterday when Mr Trump posted on Truth Social: “If Iran shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go.”
The phrase echoes Mr Trump’s 2019 warning and raises the spectre of American intervention following last year’s strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
As Mr Ellwood concluded: “Look at what Israel’s doing in Syria even today? Having a pop left, right and centre every time because nobody’s watching. Nobody cares. It’s like the rules have disappeared.”
