The administration’s brilliant operation to arrest Nicolas Maduro has echoed far beyond Venezuela. In the London Times, a professor of global history at Oxford writes that the seizure of Maduro is having serious consequences in China:
More details have started to emerge about the American raid that spirited Nicholás Maduro out of Venezuela two weeks ago. There have been reports that US forces used new weapons, including sonic devices or ones with directed energy capabilities, to overcome Maduro’s security.
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The build-up of pressure on Maduro’s regime was not exactly easy to miss. …
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That an intervention was imminent was understood by Russia, one of Venezuela’s most enthusiastic partners over the last two decades. Towards the end of last month Moscow began pulling diplomats and their families out of the capital, Caracas.Russia’s assessment of the situation, and its withdrawal of personnel, were not shared with Beijing, according to well-placed sources in China. This has caused eyebrows to be raised about what it means for a relationship between the two countries that is supposed to be “comprehensive”, “mutually beneficial” and “eternal”.
In addition to raising Chinese doubts about the loyalty of its Russian ally, Maduro’s arrest showed the impotence of China’s support for Venezuela:
Beijing was not simply blindsided by the US operation, it was embarrassed by it. Qiu Xiaoqi, China’s special envoy to Latin America, had arrived in Caracas and met Maduro hours before the latter was captured. Shortly before, Wang Yi and Yván Gil, the two countries’ foreign ministers, had spoken by phone to affirm China’s “solidarity and firm support for Venezuela in defending its sovereignty, independence and stability.”
These words would serve less as a show of resolve than a measure of how limited China’s ability was to translate diplomatic language into meaningful protection or leverage on the ground.
The immediate consequences for China include the loss of billions of dollars that it is owed by Venezuela, as well as loss of substantial Venezuelan oil imports. The author says the Maduro incident is causing a re-thinking of China’s key international relationships:
In this case, though, the fact that Beijing has been caught badly out of position, outmanoeuvred by the US and let down by Russia, has sparked vigorous discussion in China — and, in some quarters, speculation that the failure of Russian-built defence systems in Venezuela was not a coincidence, but evidence of high-level co-operation between Moscow and Washington.
That latter hypothesis seems farfetched, but if the Chinese are wondering about it, excellent. For that and other reasons, the Chinese are growing wary of their Russian alliance:
Over the last few years, the question of whether Russia is both a reliable and a good ally has become one of the key talking points among policymakers, advisers and thinkers in China.
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In particular, [Professor Jia Qingguo, former dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University] noted in an interview just before the Maduro operation that Moscow’s dependence on China has meant that the latter’s current and future relations with Europe have been compromised. As such, he added, a solution to the war in Ukraine would be of benefit to China.That is a view that has started to gain currency in recent months in Beijing, where more questions are being asked about the wisdom of an alignment with Russia supposed to be based on shared interests, but which in practice has become increasingly asymmetrical and uncomfortable. Russia’s willingness to ignore the UN charter, to rely on military force as a first resort and to use the threat of nuclear escalation and coercion as diplomatic tools sit uneasily with China’s preferred self-image as a stabilising power that works through institutions, rules and long-term balance.
You don’t have to accept that rosy view of Chinese foreign policy to see that China’s alliance with Russia may be starting to look like more trouble than it is worth.
All of this makes President Trump’s seizure of Maduro out to be a geopolitical coup as well as a flawless military operation. But in the European press, giving any credit to Trump is forbidden. Thus, the professor who authored this article describes “an aggressive and seemingly erratic Trump.” Maybe aggressive and seemingly erratic leadership is what we have needed all along.
