While critics of President Donald Trump’s foreign policy push the narrative that his Iran strikes are dividing MAGA, a closer look at the data suggests that any cracks are at the surface rather than deep in the president’s Republican base.
The RealClearPolitics Average showed that overall support for Operation Epic Fury, the joint military campaign undertaken by the United States and Israel over the weekend, had the president underwater a bit with 39% approving of the action and 52% disapproving.
A breakdown of some of the individual polls showed that Republicans were united on the issue, with no one poll showing more than 18% opposing military action in Iran. The vast majority of the disapproval came from Democrats — who were also fairly united — and, to a lesser extent, independents.
A CBS/YouGov poll taken between March 2 and March 3, for example, showed that just 10% of Democrats approved of military action in Iran and 90% disapproved. Among independents, 63% opposed the action and 37% were in favor. A majority of Republicans (85%) supported military action and just 15% did not.
A similar result came from a Washington Post poll taken on March 1, which showed Democrat opposition at 87% and support at 9%. On the Republican side, 81% approved and 12% did not — and independents once again fell in the middle, with 59% against military action and 28% in favor of it.
A Reuters/Ipsos survey followed the same pattern, with 5% of Democrats supporting military action in Iran and 95% against it. Republicans came out largely in favor of military action, showing 82% approving and 18% disapproving. Among independents, 67% disapproved and 29% supported the action.
The apparent outlier included in the average was a poll from InsiderAdvantage taken on February 28, but it still showed similar numbers from Republicans: 79.3% in favor and 12% opposed. The numbers for Democrats shifted slightly, with 62.5% disapproving and 32.1% approving. Independents also showed much higher numbers in favor of military action, with 45.3% supporting and 40.3% opposing.
Sentiments had been moving in Trump’s favor, if only slightly, just prior to the first strikes, however. A CBS/YouGov poll taken on February 24 showed 47% in favor of Trump taking military action to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, and 53% opposed. Just three days later, 51% were in favor and 49% opposed.
A Fox News poll conducted between February 28 and March 2 showed overall approval and disapproval deadlocked at 50% on either side — but also showed that a majority (61%) view Iran as a national security threat.
Among Republicans, as in the other polls, the sentiment lies primarily (84%) on the side of taking military action against Iran. Among independents, support for military action was just under half, at 40% — and only 20% of Democrats were in favor.
The Fox News poll went a bit deeper as well, noting that among those who had served in the military, a majority (59%) favored the campaign against the Iranian regime and 39% opposed it.
