It’s been a week since President Trump presented Iran with what is known in the procurement world as his “best and final offer.” On March 6, President Trump posted on Truth Social: “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.” My colleague Rusty Weiss has that story at “Trump Outlines Iran’s Only Option to End the Relentless Onslaught: ‘Unconditional Surrender’ – RedState.”
Since then, the administration has been unanimous in, rightly in my view, pushing the narrative that Iran is on the ropes and that it is just a matter of time. Friday’s press conference by Pete Hegseth hammered that theme over and over.
BACKGROUND:
‘Decimated’: Hegseth Says Iran’s Military Is Being Crushed in Operation Epic Fury – RedState
Hegseth Honors Fallen While Sounding Off on Legacy Media’s Embrace of Propaganda – RedState
Cut Off the Head, End the War: SecWar’s New Rules – RedState
There is no doubt that Iran is strategically off balance. Its navy has been reduced to a handful of dinghies that, according to Iranian press releases, can lay mines, though, for the moment, Iran seems to have decided it is more profitable to charge tolls to safely pass Hormuz than close the Strait. There is no Iranian Air Force. Iran continues to fire missiles at just about everyone, but they don’t seem to be doing much damage. There is no longer missile production in Iran, and its warehouses and missile launchers are being relentlessly hunted. Israeli drones are targeting regime checkpoints to increase the ability of people to move. The mullahs seem to have decamped from Tehran and are now cowering in Mashhad on the Afghan border. The sole sticking point is maritime traffic through Hormuz, and the administration seems to be focused on solving that problem.
The response came from Moshen Rezaee, a presence in Iranian politics since the 1979 revolution. He is a perennial “candidate” for president in the performative process Iran calls “elections.” He is currently a senior officer in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, having commanded it from 1981 to 1997, that is, during the bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut and Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia.
Iran is ready to talk about ending the war only under two conditions.
Tehran demands reparations from the USA for the damage and the withdrawal of American bases from the Persian Gulf.
This was stated by the representative of the Iranian authorities, Mohsen Rezaei:
“The end of… pic.twitter.com/qgxDGXYurj— Mike (@Doranimated) March 14, 2026
The end of the war is in our hands. We will consider the issue of ending the war only when, firstly, we receive full compensation for all our losses from the United States, and, secondly, we get a 100% guarantee for the future, which is impossible without the withdrawal of the USA from the Persian Gulf.
At first blush, it looks ridiculous because it is. But I also think a bit of a deeper reading may be a sign that a real deal is possible. For instance, he doesn’t mention Iran’s ballistic missile or nuclear weapons program. If the war ended tomorrow and U.S. forces returned to the status quo ante and Western capital rushed into Iran to rebuild stuff that has been rubbled, Rezaee could plausibly call it a win. “Reparations” would be apparent to Iran’s citizens, and the U.S. military wouldn’t be bouncing JDAMs off their foreheads.
What is notable about this is a point I raised in Have Iran’s Mullahs Cut and Run for a Safer Locale Than Tehran? – RedState. If the mullahs are indeed in Mashhad, then the character of the Iranian government has been permanently altered by this war. The hard men in the IRGC who took the pain of this campaign aren’t going to meekly go back to the barracks. They will feel they have earned the right to rule, and they have the guns to prove it.
I think all the talk of these guys being hardline and apocalyptic is silly. The real true believers strapped on a suicide vest years ago. These guys are comfortable being alive and in power. They want to keep it that way. Right now, they think they can gut out this war and emerge stronger.
Oddly enough, this could open a path for real change. One could see a deal cut between what remains of the religious leadership and Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi to get rid of the IRGC through a popular uprising and to devote Iran’s wealth and energies to creating an actual country.
For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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