Well, it a longie but a goodie. Matthew Hennessey is the editor of the Wall Street Journal’s Free Expression newsletter. He is a pereceptive gentleman with a sense of humor to boot. Hennessey writes in this morning’s edition (links and emphases omitted):
* * * * *
This is one of those things to which you hesitate to call attention, for fear of ruining it.
A UC Berkeley Institute of Governance poll released this Wednesday suggests the next governor of California could be a Republican. Sounds unbelievable, I know. Democrats enjoy a 2-to-1 voter registration advantage and a Republican hasn’t won statewide office in 20 years.
But since 2012 California has used a “jungle” primary system whereby the top two candidates proceed to the general election regardless of party. This is supposed to take the edge out of the polarization driven by low-turnout primaries.
Theoretically, in a state like California, Republicans would be motivated to vote not for one of their own candidates, but for the most moderate candidate on the Democratic side.
That theory assumes a commitment to strategic voting that is, shall we say, farfetched. People vote for candidates that they like and want to win, not with some complicated bank-shot scenario in mind.
The nightmare for California Democrats, of course, is that an overcrowded field will distribute their votes too widely. And that’s exactly what we have here: Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, the two leading Republican candidates, are ahead.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the UC Berkeley survey, writes:
According to the latest poll, small business owner Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, currently lead the field, with 17% and 16% of likely voter preferences, respectively, while each of the Democrats trail with even lower vote totals. The top Democrats are Congressman Eric Swalwell with 14%, and former Congresswoman Katie Porter (13%), followed by consumer protection advocate Tom Steyer at 10%.
None of the five other Democrats are getting more than 5% of the vote. Earlier this month, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, one of those under-5% guys, called on somebody—anybody!—to drop out. They all ignored him.
Politico speculates that Mr. Hilton could solve Democrats’ problem for them by consolidating GOP support ahead of the June 2 primary. But don’t make the mistake of assuming that Politico, of all outlets, understands how Republican voters think.
Mr. Hilton is a slick communicator and an impressive candidate. He visited us here at the Journal last summer and I found him engaging and sharp. But he has an English accent. There’s nothing wrong with that. I’m just not sure how well it plays on the streets of Bakersfield.
The other GOP candidate, Mr. Bianco, seems more like the kind of Republican candidate we’re used to seeing in the Trump era. He is a barrel-chested, law-and-order man sporting a beefy handlebar mustache. His campaign has come up with a top-tier lawn-sign slogan: Bianco—Because I Don’t Want to Move.
Nothing would make me happier than seeing California Democrats get lost in the jungle and locked out of the governor’s mansion for four years. But do me a favor and keep it under your hat. We don’t want to ruin it.
