Never mind May’s local elections, wherein Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour is set to get slaughtered. This Government’s negligence over the economy and poor crisis management are likely to catalyse an economic crisis which could easily bring forward the date of the next general election. Reform leader Nigel Farage already forecast an early election, perhaps as soon as 2027, and that was before the Iran War. Now with energy prices set to put households under more pressure, we can expect brutal budgets meeting Labour backbench rebellion and perhaps forcing Sir Keir’s hand.
Labour’s civil war is coming out in another way, and just in time for May’s local elections. Former Starmer ally, Angela Rayner, has publicly criticised the Home Secretary’s plan to extend the time an immigrant can apply for indefinite leave to remain to 10 years. Shabana Mahmood presumably acted with the PM’s backing.
Both the Home Secretary and the former Deputy PM are would-be challengers to Sir Keir, alongside the will-he-won’t-he Health Secretary, Wes Streeting. It looks like Ange could be the first to move, while the PM is – if reports are to be believed – looking to water down these immigration reforms.
Surely that is a gift to Reform, given how great a concern immigration is for voters. Maybe then this is a last-ditch attempt by Sir Keir to woo back defectors to the Greens. How successful a strategy that will be is anyone’s guess.
Perhaps Labour-to-Green defectors will decide better-the-devil-you-know, and best to back the bigger party. But I’d wager Zack Polanski has seriously and permanently captured hearts and minds on the Left with his totalising socialism.
For Reform however, any watering down of immigration reforms would be a massive boon. It’s not as if voters are likely to trust the Tories after 14-and-a-half-years of failure. Incidentally, when it comes to election day, voters on the Right are likely to break for whichever party is ahead between Reform and the Tories. So long as Reform holds its current lead I’d say forecasts of ‘peak Farage’ are wildly premature. As for the Lib Dems. Who?
Labour’s civil war on immigration – and looming crack-up on the economy and cost of living – is not only a gift to Farage’s party, but could well bring forward an early election, whether or not Sir Keir manages to cling on to the Prime Ministership.
The Labour Left does not speak for a nation which is crying out for seriously border control. Wisely, Reform knows Britain loves the NHS and has made sure this is baked into its future policies.
Yet foolishly, and by contrast, the Labour Party cannot accept immigration is a dealbreaker for most voters, hoping instead to force a policy precious few want. Sir Keir must be dizzy with all these U-turns. But a latest about-face – just in time for the May elections – could be the one to really finish off his disastrous government.
