Given their aggressive posture in today’s politics, you might assume the Democrats are in the ascendancy. In fact, however, they are in the midst of a long-term decline. YouGov charts party affiliation over the last 20 years.
First, though, some historical perspective: 70 years ago, Democrats had a huge partisan advantage over Republicans. That advantage has steadily eroded over time, in large part because conservative Southerners, once Democrats, are now Republicans:
Now, for the last 20 years:
Over the past 20 years, the share of Americans who identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party has decreased at a steady pace. Two decades ago, about half of the public identified or leaned toward the Democratic Party; that share has decreased by about seven percentage points.
The trend toward the Republican Party covers nearly all demographic groups:
There is much more data at the link.
A couple of caveats are in order. First, while the Democrats’ advantage has shrunk drastically, it is not yet negative. Second, a generation ago Republicans were more consistent voters than Democrats. There were more Democrats, but they were less likely to show up at the polls. That is no longer true. Now, Democrats tend to be better educated, and they are at least as committed–not to say fanatical–as Republicans.
Still, the tide running against the Democrats is inexorable. Demography is becoming a factor, as conservatives have been having more children than liberals for some time now, and that trend may be accelerating. And the Democrats are crazy. I think they believe they can get away with their far-left fantasies because the press will cover for them, but it doesn’t work that way anymore. The press is no longer able to keep secrets, both because there are many sources of information and because we can all see, on X, much of what is going on, whether the newspapers want to write about it or not.
So, while there are fierce struggles ahead, fundamental trends are running in favor of conservatives.
