President Trump announced today that he is extending the ceasefire in Iran to give that country’s government–“government”–an opportunity to take a unified position:
President Donald Trump on Tuesday extended the two-week U.S. ceasefire with Iran, saying the extension was warranted due to Tehran’s government being “seriously fractured.”
Trump said the ceasefire, which he earlier had said would end on Wednesday, would continue “until such time as” Iran’s leaders and representatives submit a “unified proposal” to end the war with the U.S. and Israel.
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“Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal,” Trump said in a statement.
It probably is true that there is no one who can speak credibly on behalf of Iran, and certainly there is no one whose promises would effectively bind that country years down the road. But nevertheless, I think it is clear that the IRGC has taken control. There are rumors that the IRGC has arrested more moderate members of the government; be that as it may, I think it is more or less inevitable that for the near future, Iran will be a military dictatorship.
So what is Trump waiting for? The blockade remains in place, as it should. But putting aside the question of who speaks for Iran’s government, what can they give us? Any medium- or long-term promises would be worthless. The only promise I can see that Iran’s leaders could actually execute in the immediate future would be to turn over their “nuclear dust” to us. That is worth something, I suppose, but we know where it is and they can’t make weapons of it in their current, devastated condition.
As for the Strait, rather than bargaining for a commitment to leave it open, Trump should just bomb a power plant or a bridge every time Iran fires on a ship.
Trump’s best course, I think, is to declare victory and announce the end of our military campaign. Militarily, our campaign was a stunning success. The administration’s stated objectives have been achieved. The only aspect of the campaign that remains undecided is the political. Ongoing negotiations needlessly hand power to the IRGC, which can always say No. And in today’s political climate, a simple refusal to agree (on what? anything) can and will be portrayed as “victory” by the IRGC and its Democratic Party allies.
That is a trap into which the administration should not fall. The campaign to devastate Iran’s military capacity is over, but the campaign for the midterm elections is just getting under way.
