As Aaron MacLean writes on X below, President Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran contingent on Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran did not open the strait, but it got the ceasefire anyway. What gives? Aaron argues that Trump blinked in the linked Free Press column (behind the Free Press paywall). He has condensed the predicate of his argument in the series of X posts below.
I assert in the adjacent post that it’s a challenge to ascertain the state of play in our conflict with Iran, let alone the ultimate demands of the Trump administration to resolve it. The current status of the Strait of Hormuz adds to the difficulty of the challenge. Iran should not be in a condition to pull this off again if and when the Trump administration arrives at a mmemorandum of understanding with the Iranian regime.
As Operation Epic Fury progressed, President Trump made a series of increasingly vivid threats to (in effect) destroy the Iranian economy if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran did not open the strait, and the campaign against economic targets never happened. 1/9
— Aaron MacLean (@AaronBMacLean) May 7, 2026
On April 7, the president announced a ceasefire with Iran, conditional on Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran did not open the strait, but it got the ceasefire anyway. 2/9
— Aaron MacLean (@AaronBMacLean) May 7, 2026
On 13 April, following the sputtering of negotiations, the U.S. Navy began blockading Iranian ports. 3/9
— Aaron MacLean (@AaronBMacLean) May 7, 2026
This past Sunday the president announced Project Freedom, a limited operation to begin restoring traffic to the strait. Iran retaliated by attacking in the strait and targets onshore in the UAE… 4/9
— Aaron MacLean (@AaronBMacLean) May 7, 2026
…Then on Tuesday evening, in the face of this retaliation, after turmoil with regional allies, and purportedly to set the conditions for further talks, the president “paused” the effort to reopen the strait, leaving it under de facto Iranian control. 5/9
— Aaron MacLean (@AaronBMacLean) May 7, 2026
The US blockade remains in place. But otherwise, the story since early April is a story of unilateral American concessions, unanswered Iranian attacks, the bizarre climb-down with Project Freedom, and presidential threats that have yet to be acted on. 6/9
— Aaron MacLean (@AaronBMacLean) May 7, 2026
In addition to their (plausible) belief that closing the strait gives them economic and political leverage over Washington, the pattern of facts outlined here can’t but give confidence to Iran’s leaders that their position is not as weak as it might otherwise seem. 7/9
— Aaron MacLean (@AaronBMacLean) May 7, 2026
It seems unlikely that they will be in a mood to swiftly offer major concessions on the nuclear file and the strait. After all, President Trump promised the American people a 4-6 week war–and his actions clearly telegraph a reluctance to return to major combat operations. 8/9
— Aaron MacLean (@AaronBMacLean) May 7, 2026
Bad results from the war–like Iran controling the strait indefinitely–could happen. The best way to shift leverage decisively in our direction would be to restart efforts to clear the strait while maintaining our blockade. My thoughts in @TheFP. 9/9https://t.co/n1kOAzsenu
— Aaron MacLean (@AaronBMacLean) May 7, 2026
