I wrote here that I didn’t expect the Iran-Israel war to seriously divide MAGA, and that I thought the “anti-Israel/pacifist wing of the right” would prove to be “barely discernible.” This survey by J.L. Partners supports that view:
* 58% of Republicans back U.S. military strikes on Iran, compared to just
25% opposed.* Among MAGA Republicans, support jumps to 65%, with just 19% against. This is higher than among self-described Traditional Republicans (51% support).
Two striking things about these findings: 1) Most Republicans say they support U.S. military strikes on Iran, which so far are not on the table. And 2) MAGA Republicans are more likely to support U.S. military action than traditional Republicans.
* Trump voters say Israel’s war is America’s war: 60% agree that Israel’s war is America’s and that the U.S. must stand with its closest ally and be prepared to act if needed. Among Republicans overall, support rises to 63%—and to 67% among MAGA Republicans.
So MAGA Republicans are more pro-Israel than traditional Republicans, and Republicans in general are more pro-Israel than Trump voters (a group that includes independents and a few Democrats).
* 81% of MAGA Republicans back Israel’s own strikes to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
That pretty much tells the story. As you might expect, the mullahs enjoy virtually no support outside of a few “Squad” members of Congress:
* Support for Israel is dominant: 59% of Americans back Israel over Iran—just 8% back Iran. Among Republicans, the split is 84% to 3%.
One more thing: a month or two ago, a memo went out to Democratic Party newspapers to push the line that Trump voters were experiencing “buyer’s remorse” because they were dismayed by the President’s actions (just Google “Trump voters buyer’s remorse”). That was patent nonsense, as we knew and as this survey confirms:
* Trump’s base is locked in: 95% of 2024 Trump voters approve of the president; 84% back his handling of the conflict, and 92% of MAGA Republicans approve.
So, while there could be a civil war in the offing, it will not be between factions of the Republican Party.
