A few hours ago, Iran responded to the U.S. attack on its nuclear facilities by sending six missiles toward our base in Qatar. Apparently all six were intercepted, and no damage to the base is reported.
Iran evidently did not actually want to do any noticeable damage:
According to The New York Times, Iran notified Qatar ahead of its attack in order to minimize casualties and reduce any fallout in relations. Tehran “gave advanced notice that attacks were coming to minimize casualties,” the report said, citing three Iranian officials with knowledge of the plans.
Iran desired to retaliate symbolically for the US strikes on its nuclear sites on Sunday, but also sought to ensure that both sides could easily deescalate….
That appears to be correct: the retaliation was symbolic, and not intended to be effective. No doubt it was also intended for the home front:
“In response to the US aggressive and insolent action against Iran’s nuclear sites and facilities, a few hours ago, the powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran struck the US air base in Al-Udeid, Qatar,” the [National Security Council] said in a statement, adding that the number of missiles used “was the same as the number of bombs that the US had used in attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities.”
Actually, we dropped a lot more than six bombs, so that is probably more misinformation for the home front. In any event, the relevant metric is the damage done, not the number of bombs dropped.
It sounds as though Iran may be content to leave it at that, although of course a more serious effort at retaliation, or a terrorist attack here in the U.S., can’t be ruled out. But my guess is that whoever is now in charge in Iran will not want to risk the response that a more effective retaliation might bring. “Deescalation” seems the more prudent choice.
UPDATE: President Trump has a message for the Iranians:
It is also worth noting that today was the first day when the financial markets have been open following our bombing of the nuclear sites. While international turmoil and the threat of war will depress securities markets, today the Dow was up 375 points and the S&P was up 57. I am not positive about the timing, but I believe they rose, in particular, after the news of Iran’s weak retaliation was reported. I am not generally a believer in drawing major conclusions from one day’s stock market activity, but this does pretty clearly signal that no one seriously believes that a wider war in the Middle East is in the offing.
