During the presidential campaign, Donald Trump said he believed he could end the Russia-Ukraine war with a few phone calls. I thought he could, too. I thought Russia and Ukraine were both weary, to put it mildly, and would be happy to be given a way out by the U.S.
But we were wrong. Ukraine wanted to negotiate an end to the war, but Russia didn’t. So the war goes on. Today President Trump announced measures intended to bring the conflict to an end.
First, weapons. Trump said the U.S. will furnish Ukraine billions of dollars worth of its best weapons, including, per anonymous sources, “long-range missiles that could strike deep inside Russia.” Apparently the idea is for European countries to buy the weapons from us, and pass them on to Ukraine. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte seems enthusiastic about this plan.
Second, if Russia does not agree to a ceasefire within 50 days, Trump will subject it to sanctions and “secondary tariffs.” Apparently the secondary tariffs would be imposed on countries like India and China that buy Russian oil. Trump suggested that he could impose tariffs of 100% on these countries without new legislation. So, once again, tariffs are the universal tool of foreign policy.
Will these measures finally bring the Ukraine war to an end? I have no idea. The war went beyond any seemingly rational end-point long ago. Vladimir Putin may believe that, after the horrific investment his country has already made, he must win the war in order to stay in power, and perhaps in order to stay alive. So we will have to see what happens.
