You can almost hear the disappointment. From CNBC,
Consumer prices rise 2.7% annually in July, less than expected amid tariff worries.
“Less than expected.” Well, better luck next month. As always, the U.K. Daily Mail is a little more excitable, reporting,
Wall Street stunned as inflation defies odds on tariffs.
Some detail,
For months, economists have sounded the alarm about runaway prices. The big spike still hasn’t shown up.
Inflation held steady at 2.7 percent in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, just shy of the 2.8 percent bump Wall Street expected. It’s the same reading as June.
So, “stunned” seems like a bit of an oversell. As of the moment (mid-morning Tuesday), stocks are up, pushing toward record highs. Stocks go up, stocks go down.
Since we’re talking about the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), I want to circle back to an item included in the Bureau’s much-maligned July jobs report. Even with the overall jobs number up (people forget this), BLS reports,
Federal government employment continued to decline in July (-12,000) and is down by 84,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)
The Biden Administration went on a hiring spree, right up to the moment they walked out the door. Once those severance packages run out this fall, we’ll see a big drop in Federal employment. This is a good thing.
