The Labour government’s plans to raise defence spending are not being introduced soon enough, a former general and author of a key defence review has warned. General Sir Richard Barrons has warned that failure to address the threats posed to Britain in an effective way and in a timely manner, could see the UK becoming one of the “strategic victims of the 21st century.”
Earlier this year, Sir Keir Starmer’s government pledged to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, rising to 3% in the next parliament. This was followed in June by a commitment by NATO allies to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, including 3.5% on “core defence requirements” and a further 1.5% on “resilience and security”. Asked if this was enough, Sir Richard told the Defence on the Brink podcast: “It is definitely not soon enough when the clock is owned by potential opponents.”
Sir Richard warned of challenging political decisions to come, with the defence spending increase likely to be financed by cuts to other public services after Chancellor Rachel Reeves vowed not to raise taxes or borrowing.
He said: “But the discussion we are really going to have is that if we are going to have to spend more money on our defence, and we have a stagnant economy, we don’t want to be taxed more and we don’t want to borrow any more, then the only way you can spend more money on defence is to take it out of other things that we spend public money on.
“That is essentially welfare and health and other things and that is not a debate that we want to have, but it is a debate that we are going to have to have if we are going to defend ourselves.
“If we don’t defend ourselves, then we are just going to end up as one of the strategic victims of the 21st century.”
Sir Richard was one of the three main authors of the UK’s Strategic Defence Review (SDR) launched earlier this year, which made 62 recommendations for modernising the armed forces to prepare them to deter and fight.
The authors of the report stressed following its publication that the government’s commitment to increasing defence spending was vital in allowing them to go as far as they did with their recommendations, which included radical changes to the delivery methods of nuclear weapons, the procurement of submarines and the development of AI and cyber capabilities to target adversaries below the threshold for armed conflict.
The report also stressed the importance of fostering a closer relationship between the military and the general public in order to prepare for war, increase willingness to serve and gather support for increased spending at the expense of other areas.
Sir Richard added: “If we want to stay safe in a world where we don’t own the outcome and we definitely don’t own the clock, we are almost certainly going to have to spend more money sooner than we are currently planning.
“The only way to do that is to take it out of other things we are spending money on and this is a debate for wider civil society, we need every voter, every citizen in this country to recognise that it is just how it has turned out, we need to spend more money on defence and that is going to have to come from some of the things that we like more.”
