Pascal famously argued that belief in God is a good bet, since it costs little and, whatever the odds may be, the payoff, if God exists, is infinite. I suspect that a great many people, whether they have heard of Pascal or not, have implicitly adopted that logic.
Nowadays, of course, you can bet on virtually anything. The Super Bowl alone offers more than 100 options. You can’t bet on the existence of God, since it would be hard to know who should pay off. But you can bet on the return of Jesus Christ, and people actually do. Currently, the betting odds on Jesus returning during 2026 stand at a little under 4%:
I think the chance of Jesus coming back this year is actually much slimmer. But here’s the thing: If Jesus doesn’t return, you get a $4 return on your $100. But if He does come back this year, you win the bet! You would get something like a $2,500 return on your $100. Woohoo!
Only…if Jesus returns, what are you going to do with the $2,500? Wherever you are going, you won’t need it. Money presumably would lose all value, and your win would be moot. So, while Pascal’s bet may have been a no-brainer, this one is on the list of all-time bad wagers.
I tried to place a $100 bet on Jesus not returning in 2026, but it wouldn’t go through. Maybe it is illegal in Minnesota, I don’t know. Or maybe a higher power was trying to save me from folly. In any event, we can check back on New Year’s Eve and see who won this wager.
