(LifeSiteNews) — Whenever there has been talk about a crisis in the Catholic Church since the mid-20th century, Africa is frequently the counterpoint that is thrown the other way.
Statistics reveal a surge from 2 million Catholics in Africa in 1900 to 281 million in 2023 (a 14,000% increase). The continent is cast as the vibrant heart of global Catholicism, a counterpoint to the graying pews of Europe and the Americas. Pope Francis certainly leaned into this narrative with visits to the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan in 2023 and a Congolese Mass in St. Peter’s in 2019. The story is enticing: Africa is the Church’s future, brimming with fervent believers and packed seminaries. The crisis isn’t universal; it is therefore argued by journalists and Vatican officials that postconciliar Catholicism is a roaring success in certain parts of the world. If the faith is struggling in Europe and the West, the problem is external and with the culture – rather than any particular things internal that are taking place or not taking place within the Catholic Church herself.
However, data reveals a picture substantially less rosy. While the young and rapidly expanding Church in sub-Saharan Africa certainly sports some uniquely positive characteristics, it does not signify a flourishing Catholic future on the horizon. Far from it. Upon closer inspection, Africa given as an example of the Church’s secure health is a polished myth masking deeper challenges.
After the election of Pope Leo XIV, a wave of optimism and enthusiasm gripped the Catholic world; Africa’s unprecedentedly pivotal part in his election at the conclave drew attention to its newfound prominence. It’s understandable why. With socially conservative and often theologically orthodox clergy who herald a healthy and powerful belief in the supernatural, their growing contribution to the Catholic world is both welcome and increasingly felt.
Figures are indeed striking. Much has been made about Africa’s Catholic population growing 3.31% in just a single year from 2022 to 2023 – from 272 million to 281 million – outpacing all continents. The Democratic Republic of Congo leads with 55 million Catholics, followed by Nigeria (32.5 million), Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya. This mirrors Africa’s demographic boom – 40 million more people in 2021, 8.3 million of them Catholic. Compare this to Europe’s 474,000 Catholic decline in 2022 or the Americas’ 0.9% growth.
Weekly Mass attendance in Africa is unmatched: 94% in Nigeria, 73% in Kenya, and 74% in Rwanda far surpass Poland’s 52% and Italy’s 34%. This is the most authentic sign of Catholicism’s genuine health in Africa and the fidelity of its adherents.
However, while Nigeria is an outlier – it ought to be noted that Mass attendance in the United States in 1950 – a first world nation already exposed to journalism, mass media, scientism, secular education – was 75%, which is in line with other African nations today. We will return to this point later.
The growth, moreover, is not what it seems. Pre-Vatican II, from 1900 to 1960, the Church’s expansion in Africa was overwhelmingly accounted for by missionary successes. Catholic membership rose from 2 million in 1900 to 16 million by 1960, an 800% increase, but these were largely through conversions. French and Portuguese missionaries, often tied to colonial powers, established parishes, schools, and hospitals, converting millions in regions like the Congo and Mozambique. By 1960, sub-Saharan Africa was 9% Christian, with Catholics comprising 2% of the population, a significant gain from near-zero in 1900. This was the era of true evangelistic success, with missionaries like those in Uganda’s Baganda region converting entire communities, culminating in the canonization of the Ugandan Martyrs in 1964.
Post-Vatican II, growth has shifted to demographics and births. From 1960 to 2000, Africa’s Catholic population soared to 140 million and by 2023 reached 281 million. But this reflects Africa’s population explosion – 1.3 billion in 2020, with births rising from 25 million in 1988 to 44 million in 2020. Africa is witnessing a population surge as it maintains the highest birth rates in the world.
Catholics remain 19% of Africa’s population, stable since 2015, indicating growth tracks births, not conversions. The World Christian Database notes Africa’s Catholic share has plateaued, with no significant evangelistic gains since the 1970s.
Missionary successes have waned; the Church now relies on high fertility rates (Africa’s average is 4.6 children per woman) rather than winning new souls. Unlike the pre-Vatican II era, where conversions drove expansion, today’s growth is passive, not a triumph of evangelization.
The Catholics per priest metric also reveals strain. In 2000, Africa had 4,786 Catholics for every priest. In 2020, this was 5,089 Catholics per priest; by 2023, this worsened to 5,239, a 3% increase, based on 281 million Catholics and 53,659 priests.
Globally, the ratio is 3,373, with Europe at 1,316 (which is already thought to indicate an alarming shortage) and Oceania at 1,149, highlighting Africa’s shortage, especially in rural areas. For context, in 1981 after already two decades of decline, the United States had a ratio of 875 Catholics to every priest. Things have worsened across the board, and it is not good news for Africa that it lags behind so severely.
Seminaries are indeed ostensibly burgeoning in Africa, but that does not tell the whole story. Ordination figures are robust – 34,541 major seminarians in 2022, up 2.1%, with Nigeria ordaining 410 priests in 2019 – but, crucially, the 2.7% priest increase (2022-2023) lags the 3.31% growth in the Catholic population across Africa as a whole?
What do these statistics mean? They reveal that Africans are the least likely from among all the continents to become priests. They reveal Africa is already the most overburdened and most struggling to sacramentally and pastorally provide for its flock, a picture that is only worsening.
Additionally, evidence suggests that liturgical compliance is uneven. The Novus Ordo Missae’s flexibility has enabled flexible adaptations – vernacular Masses, African music, and dance, as in Cameroon’s “altar populism.” These align with Vatican II’s call for inculturation, but abuses are frequent. Anecdotal reports from Nigeria’s bishops cite improvisation, syncretism with traditional religions, and charismatic excesses in rural dioceses, where priest shortages limit oversight. Urban areas, with better-trained clergy, adhere more closely to rubrics. No systematic data seem to quantify abuses, but concerns persist that deviations dilute Catholic identity.
Are such liturgical deviations driving conversions to Protestantism? It’s plausible.
Protestants, particularly Pentecostals, are now Africa’s largest Christian group and they are the fastest growing. Precise conversion statistics are scarce. The World Christian Database suggests Catholics lose ground to Protestants in Nigeria and Uganda, where Pentecostalism’s vibrancy attracts defectors. A 2010 Pew report notes denominational switching, with Catholics citing Protestantism’s frequently captivating style of worship.
In Côte d’Ivoire, Protestantism and Islam are gaining as Catholicism wanes, partly due to post-Vatican II liberalization perceived as weakening distinctiveness. Estimates suggest 5%-10% of African Catholics may have converted to Protestantism since 1990, but hard data is lacking. Protestant megachurches report attendance rivaling or surpassing Catholic rates (e.g., Nigeria’s 94%), driven by healing services and prosperity gospel.
And is the Novus Ordo succeeding on its own merits or are we simply seeing high attendance rates due to Africa’s innate religiosity? As stated before, compared the United States’ rate of Mass attendance before the council, Africa’s current data aside from Nigeria is not particularly excellent. They appear to be in line with the continental average, if not a little below. An estimated 79% of sub-Saharan Africans attend a religious service weekly.
The Church’s vibrancy appears to owe much to the continent’s cultural predisposition to faith, where communal worship and supernatural beliefs thrive. The Novus Ordo’s adaptability – local languages, music, and rituals – might enhance appeal but it doesn’t fully explain the fervor. African Catholics blend orthodoxy with charismatic practices, reflecting local spirituality more than Vatican II’s reforms. The Church rides this wave, but its success leans heavily on Africa’s custom of weekly religious attendance, not liturgical innovation alone.
Given that before the council Mass attendance plummeted in the United States and conversions abounded in Africa while missionary activity was seeing much greater success – this whispers to us the Church is today actually performing relatively poorly compared to its past flourishing and present potential. There is ripe soil across the continent for the seed of the faith. Anybody who has met a few African clerics can recall their profound spirituality. But the post-conciliar Catholic Church may not be currently fulfilling its role as the sower quite as adequately as it ought.
