According to media reports, President Trump has submitted a 15-point set of demands on someone or other in Iran — let us postulate Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi, who have been removed our target list — to resolve the current conflict. Citing unnamed sources, Israeli media specify 14 of the 15 demands conveyed to Iran as follows:
1. Iran must dismantle its existing nuclear capabilities.
2. Iran must commit never to pursue nuclear weapons.
3. There will be no uranium enrichment on Iranian territory.
4. Iran must hand its stockpile of some 450 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent to the International Atomic Energy Agency in the near future, in a timetable to be agreed.
5. The Natanz, Isfahan and Fordo nuclear facilities must be dismantled.
6. The IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, must be granted full access, transparency and oversight inside Iran.
7. Iran must abandon its regional proxy “paradigm.”
8. Iran must cease the funding, direction and arming of its regional proxies.
9. The Strait of Hormuz must remain open and function as a free maritime corridor.
10. Iran’s missile program must be limited in both range and quantity, with specific thresholds to be determined at a later stage.
11. Any future use of missiles would be restricted to self-defense.
In return, Iran would benefit as follows:
12. Iran would receive a full lifting of sanctions imposed by the international community.
13. The US would assist Iran in advancing its civilian nuclear program, including electricity generation at the Bushehr nuclear plant.
14. The so-called “snapback” mechanism, which allows for the automatic reimposition of sanctions if Iran fails to comply, would be removed.
A possible point 15: “Other reports have also suggested that the Trump proposal requires an Iranian commitment to stop ‘exporting the revolution’ or interfering in the internal politics of neighboring Gulf states, and that it provides for a ‘long-term roadmap’ aimed at de-escalating the ‘state of war’ between the US and the Islamic Republic.” See also Mark Dubowitz and Ben Cohen’s New York Post column “Trump’s 15-point Iran truce plan would let one terrifying threat slide.”
All in all, the 15 points sound like far-fetched terms of a real agreement with the Iranian regime. On the other hand, Axios has a story that sounds entirely plausible: “Pentagon prepares for massive ‘final blow’ of Iran war.” It must be the case.
Iran, of course, has its own terms. They appear to be unaffected by the course of events so far. In his It’s Noon In Israel newsletter this morning, Amit Segal reiterates Iran’s terms:
The closure of all American bases in the Gulf and reparations for attacks on Iran. It wants a new order in the Strait of Hormuz that would allow it to collect transit fees. It is asking for guarantees that the war will not restart, along with an end to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, and the lifting of all sanctions. As for its ballistic missile program—no limitations at all, despite having just demonstrated capabilities that reach well beyond its previously declared range. Nuclear material is not even mentioned, but it is hard to imagine Tehran agreeing to let it leave the country.
Segal comments: “A party that believes it is losing does not make demands like these. Either the regime is so hardline that it cannot see the house collapsing around it, or it believes it has more leverage than it appears, that Trump cannot sustain this campaign.”
JOHN adds: I think that whoever is left in the Iranian regime is counting on the Democratic Party to bail them out. They may be right.
