Everyone knows that California, New York and Illinois are circling the drain after years of failed liberal government. Fewer are aware that Minnesota, once hailed by Barack Obama as the exemplar of a successful blue state, is also on the rocks.
Historically, Minnesota was a prosperous place. The most basic measure of economic well-being is per capita GDP. By this measure, Minnesota always enjoyed a “premium” over the U.S. as a whole. As recently as 2014, Minnesota’s per capita GDP was more than $4,000 over the national average. That is $16,000+ for a family of four. No wonder people thought of Minnesota as the most successful of blue (or mostly blue, anyway) states.
But in 2014, an ascendant Democratic Party enacted a massive tax increase that brought Minnesota’s top personal income tax rate to just under 10%. That caused the state’s economy to spiral downward. This chart shows Minnesota’s per capita GDP in comparison with the national average, which shows as 0 on the X axis:
In 2024, for the first time in its history, Minnesota became a below-average state, economically. Its per capita GDP is now below the national average.
Not only that: Minnesota is the only state whose per capita GDP growth has trailed the nation’s for every one of the last ten years. Ten years in a row of failure; the worst record of any state.
As a result of lack of opportunity in Minnesota, driven in part by an exodus of entrepreneurs and lack of job creation, people are leaving the state–and, just as important, not moving into it. This chart tells the story: Minnesota gains residents in the income category 0-$25,000 on account of its lavish welfare benefits, and loses residents to other states, on a net basis, in every income category over $25,000:
Minnesota’s decline began under Governor Mark Dayton and has accelerated during Tim Walz’s six-plus years in office. Walz’s administration has been a disaster for the people of Minnesota, but it appears that he will run for a third term in 2026. Republicans are lining up to oppose him, but no Republican has won a statewide race in Minnesota since 2006, even though more Minnesotans describe themselves as conservative than liberal.
The point of all this is that there are no exceptions to the rule that liberal policies always fail, and impoverish the people who are subjected to them. None.
The charts above are from the presentation that we at American Experiment are putting on during this year’s Summer Tour of Minnesota, titled “Minnesota DOGE: Cut the Waste, Save the Budget.” If you live nearby, you can see upcoming tour dates and locations here. I think we have done six tour events so far.
