Socialism may be on the rise in New York with the election of Zohran Mamdani, but the story is different elsewhere. People may be familiar with the rise of Javier Milei in Argentina, but another election victory is flying under the radar. Last month, the people of Bolivia ended decades of socialist rule in the country with the election of Rodrigo Paz. President Donald Trump should capitalize on Paz’s election and pursue closer trade relations with Bolivia.
For years, Bolivia suffered under the socialist government of Evo Morales. One of the worst economic downturns in the country’s history led to two right-wing candidates facing off in October’s runoff election. Although the true right-wing candidate, former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, lost to Paz, the election marks a significant shift in Bolivia’s political landscape.
Paz’s victory presents a huge opportunity for the Trump administration. By pursuing closer trade ties with Bolivia, the United States can gain greater access to Bolivia’s rare earth reserves. This will help the U.S. break China’s stranglehold on these critical minerals. In addition, closer ties between the two countries can help diminish the influence of U.S. rivals such as China and Iran. Trump should move right away to secure a trade deal with the incoming Paz administration. An invitation to Washington, D.C., would be a good place to start with the new Bolivian leader.
Why is a trade deal with Bolivia so important? Rare earths are a series of 17 elements used to manufacture a wide variety of advanced technologies. Currently, the U.S. relies on China for 70% of its rare earth imports and 90% of the globe’s rare earth processing. Considering the possibility of war between China and the U.S, this dependence poses a huge threat to U.S security. As we saw in the trade war, China will not hesitate to cut off rare earth exports to the U.S. The U.S, therefore, needs to find alternative sources for these minerals. While Bolivia may not break China’s rare earths monopoly on its own, the U.S needs to find as many options as possible. The U.S has already secured deals to this effect with Japan, Ukraine, and several other nations.
Strengthening ties with Bolivia will also help the U.S reestablish the Monroe Doctrine. Originally crafted to keep European powers out of the Western Hemisphere, the 21st-century threat to U.S security is from China. China is quickly becoming one of the top economic players in Latin America, affording it critical influence right in the United States’ backyard. The Trump administration is already pushing back against China’s influence in the Panama Canal; a trade deal with Bolivia would further reduce China’s influence in the region.
Javier Milei’s Argentina is an example of Trump embracing a potential ally. While Milei’s reforms are, per se, popular in Argentina, Trump’s loan to the Argentine government is a sign that Trump is securing alliances in South America. Milei has made it no secret that he wants to move his country away from Chinese influence.
While Paz is not as conservative as Milei, closer ties with his government could help stem Chinese sway in the region. In addition, closer trade ties with the U.S could help improve Bolivia’s economic situation, further entrenching the center-right’s position in Bolivia against the socialists. While it does not directly affect U.S interests, securing liberty-minded leaders is a worthwhile goal for U.S foreign policy. Free countries tend to stick together, and having Bolivia in that camp means they’re not in the authoritarian camp.
Trump needs to approach his relationship with Paz carefully. Just look at Canada. At one point, Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party were cruising to a landslide victory. However, months of 51st state jokes and tariffs from Trump saved Mark Carney and the Liberal Party from certain defeat. If Trump were to handle Bolivia with the same aggression and flippancy that he approached Canada, he risks losing a potential source of critical rare earths. Worse, a failed Paz administration could lead to the socialists returning to power in Bolivia. Thus, it would secure China another access point in the Western Hemisphere.
In the U.S, socialism is on the rise with the election of Mamdani, but a quick look south of the border reveals a situation far less bleak. Paz and Milei are signs that socialism can be rolled back. Not only that, the election of Paz presents the United States with an opportunity to help itself and Bolivia in the process. Trump should capitalize on this opportunity.
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