The stock market (S&P 500 index) rose for the seventh consecutive trading session, clawing its way into positive territory today in the day’s dying minutes. For the calendar month of April 2025, the market declined by less than 1 percent (0.76%, to be more precise).
The market is up more than 10 percent over the past 12 months.
The high-tech Nasdaq index fell today but finished up for the month of April and is up over 11 percent for the past 12 months.
This less than 1 percent monthly decline is being likened to the Great Depression by no less than The Wall Street Journal. They wrote last week,
Dow Headed for Worst April Since 1932 as Investors Send ‘No Confidence’ Signal
The market, thankfully, finished better than the Journal had anticipated. But this morning, it got off to a rocky start.
The source was some economic data issued this morning, where the Q1 estimate of GDP shrank slightly, and shrank even more than anticipated. CNBC reports,
- Gross domestic product fell at a 0.3% annualized pace, largely pushed by a surge in imports ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
- Imports soared 41.3%, driven by a 50.9% increase in goods. Imports subtract from GDP.
Companies were front-running anticipated Trump tariffs, which in GDP math counts against the economy. It’s more of a temporal shift than any indication of economic decline, and one that should reverse in later quarters.
The other factors,
A slowdown in consumer spending and a sharp decline in federal outlays also contributed to the weak GDP number amid Elon Musk’s efforts at the Department of Government Efficiency.
As Zerohedge notes, the personal spending number grew, exceeding expectations. As for a fall in federal spending, that’s ultimately a good thing for the economy if it leads to lower budget deficits.
So, as the full story of the GDP number trickled out, the market staged a big, late-day rally.
