As the U.S. military carries out its flawless demolition of Iran’s military assets, the success of Operation Epic Fury seems obvious after only a week. But of course, the Democrats will not credit President Trump with success on any front. On Iran, their strategy is to move the goalposts.
Toward that end, Deep State intelligence officials leaked information about a National Intelligence Council report to the Washington Post, which reports on the document here. Was the leak a crime? I assume so, but no one seems to have raised any concern about it:
A classified report by the National Intelligence Council found that even a large-scale assault on Iran launched by the United States would be unlikely to oust the Islamic republic’s entrenched military and clerical establishment, a sobering assessment as the Trump administration raises the specter of an extended military campaign that officials say has “only just begun.”
The findings, confirmed to The Washington Post by three people familiar with the report’s contents, raise doubts about President Donald Trump’s declared plan to “clean out” Iran’s leadership structure and install a ruler of his choosing.
The report, as summarized by the Post, says that even if Iran’s leadership is decimated it is unlikely that regime opponents will be able to overthrow it:
The report, completed about a week before the United States and Israel initiated the war on Feb. 28, outlined succession scenarios stemming from either a narrowly tailored campaign against Iran’s leaders or a broader assault against its leadership and government institutions, the people familiar with its findings said. In both cases, the intelligence concluded that Iran’s clerical and military establishment would respond to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power, these people said.
The prospect of Iran’s fragmented opposition taking control of the country was described as “unlikely,” said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a classified report.
That conclusion is consistent with the fact, as I and countless others have pointed out, that there is no precedent for a bombing campaign alone bringing about regime change. But, while the Trump administration has often expressed the hope that the Iranian people will rise up and seize their freedom, that is not the objective of our campaign. Thus:
“President Trump and the administration have clearly outlined their goals with regard to Operation Epic Fury: destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capacity, demolish their navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and prevent them from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a statement. “The Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed.”
I see little doubt that the administration will achieve its objectives in Iran. That country’s leaders will mostly be dead, its missiles will be almost entirely destroyed, its navy will have ceased to exist, its military infrastructure will be devastated, its nuclear program will be utterly destroyed, and so on. Whether the Islamic regime survives or, more likely, is succeeded by a military dictatorship, it will be in no position to threaten us, or its neighbors, for many years. It will lack any significant ability to fund or supply Hezbollah or Hamas. And its new leaders, whoever they may be, will be on notice that if they threaten their neighbors or support terrorism, they, too, will likely be killed.
We will have paid our long-overdue debt to the mullahs, and the Middle East will be a vastly safer and more peaceful place, for years to come. I think all of these consequences are, even at this early point, overwhelmingly probable.
If, in addition to that, the Iranian people are able to revolt and install a democracy, it would be a great thing for them and for the world. A reformed Iran would be a major contributor to the world’s economy and culture, but we can’t make that happen. As Trump has said several times, Iran’s future is up to the Iranians, not to us.
To be sure, Trump has also talked about “unconditional surrender” and wanting to sign off on Iran’s next leader or leaders. But never has he connected those statements to regime change.
Seeing the overwhelming success of Epic Fury, Democrats are preparing to declare the mission a failure, not because it didn’t achieve its stated objectives, but because it didn’t enable a new, democratic future for Iran. That is, as someone once put it, a consummation devoutly to be wished, but it is not the criterion for evaluating the success of Epic Fury.
