I’ve always found the “expectations” game in politics to be a particularly useless exercise. When it comes to voting, either at the ballot box or in a legislature, there are winners and losers, but no third category. The “margin” of victory or defeat is quickly forgotten.
Don’t get me wrong, I wish Republicans the best in today’s contests. But let’s be clear, all of the prominent races are being held in areas won by Democrats last year.
The only prominent office contested today where a Republican is running as the incumbent is the attorney general’s race in Virginia.
So, this headline from Politico strikes me as odd,
Can Democrats mount a comeback? Look to Tuesday’s elections for clues.
Trump lost New Jersey and Virginia last year by almost identical 52-46 margins. He was not competitive in New York City or Minneapolis last year. In fact, it’s been decades since a Republican presidential candidate prevailed in those locales.
I delighted in the Republican sweep in Virginia back in 2021. Unfortunately, it did not prove to be a bellwether for the 2022 midterm elections, where the Republicans underperformed “expectations.”
Politico writes,
When voters head to the polls on Tuesday, they will not just be picking a big-city mayor and two blue-state governors — they will be charting a course for the depleted Democratic Party.
And the margin of the expected victory will narrate the story.
Turnout today is likely to be far below what occurs in even a midterm election year.
I gather that the most enthusiastic voters in New York City and Minneapolis are those hoping to get something for nothing.
And both of those mayoral contests feature an African-American Muslim socialist vs. a more mainstream Democrat. What does that say about the Democratic comeback?
I’ll be watching election returns in the two cities to see what kind of Democrat prevails. That will be more telling of future events.
