Politico is reporting that President Trump is “obsessed” with the 2026 mid-terms. I hope so; as I have said before, I believe it is important for him to keep his approval numbers high to prevent a big Democrat tide that will impede his second-term priorities.
Of course, Politico also has an article about Trump’s “obsession” with altering the world’s maps, so that may just be the MSM’s word of the day.
The RCP average shows that President Trump is approved by 45.3 percent (with 50.7 percent disapproving) of the voters, which is an improvement from my last evaluation. Once again, as I said then, and as I reiterate now, the RCP average is where we should be looking to determine Trump’s political strength. If you don’t want to listen to me, please listen to acclaimed journalist – and my former Santorum 2000 colleague – Salena Zito.
Coming up first, though, are the off-mid-term elections in New Jersey and Virginia. Both states have races for governor, and state legislators.
Today, I am going to focus on New Jersey.
There is one statewide office open in NJ, the governorship, along with all state assembly and state senate seats. Democrats currently have full control of the state, although the term-limited Governor, Phil Murphy, only barely won reelection last time. Both political parties have competitive primary races on June 10th.
The (serious) Democrats include Newark Mayor Ras Baraka; Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop; U.S. Representatives Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill; former Mayor of Montclair Sean Spiller, who is president of the New Jersey Education Association; and former State Senate President Stephen Sweeney. Baraka is certainly the most left-wing candidate, who is part of the angry socialist wing of the Democrat Party. Gottheimer and Sweeney are the most right-wing of the group, with Sherrill trying to position herself largely in the middle.
Polling (unfortunately not at the RCP) shows that Sherrill’s positioning is working for her. She has developed a small edge of about 5-10 points over the others. However, she still only has around 20 percent. As Bonchie has reported, Baraka has decided to make his play for the angry lefty by rioting at an ICE facility. All of these candidates will have enough money to play in the primary, between their own campaigns, government matching funds and the “independent” PACs that support them.
With such a diverse and competitive field, it is often hard to predict exactly who will win the race. Sherrill does have an edge, and is a woman, which maybe enough for DEI- loving Democrats. Still, with no candidate breaking 20 percent, small things could swing the vote. There is also the possibility that wild changes could occur, such as one candidate attacking another only to see the benefits accrued for a third candidate.
RELATED: Dem Mayor Arrested for Storming ICE Facility Plays the Victim on CNN, Then Damning Video Comes Out
Meanwhile, the (serious) Republicans include state senator Jon Bramnick, who is also a former state assemblyman; former state assemblyman and 2021 governor nominee Jack Ciattarelli, who narrowly lost to Gov. Murphy four years before; and radio talk show host Bill Spadea. Ciattarelli has a huge lead over the others, close to a majority of the vote, with Spadea a distant second. No doubt, this is partly a function of his nomination four years before, plus his candidacy in 2017. Ciattarelli is running as a moderate conservative, while Spadea has tried to be the most conservative. Bramnick is running as the most moderate and anti-Trump (which doesn’t seem to be working for him). Citattarelli also has the edge in fundraising, although the funding field is not as unbalanced.
Ciattarelli would have to have the betting odds for the Republican nomination. However, if President Trump weighs in, this would presumably be determinative. There is a small chance that Ciattarelli will be hurt by his successive races for governor, as sometimes that makes the candidate appear to be a “political loser” whom the party becomes reluctant to follow again. But, so far, that has not happened.
The general election is going to be hard to predict this far away, with neither of the nominees set. Of course, the CW, as exemplified by Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, says that the Democrats are favored. The MSM usually makes the following arguments: 1) NJ is a Democrat state in presidential elections with a Democrat edge in registration; 2) the anti-Trump Democrat wave will power the Democrats this year; 3) Sherrill, and most of the other leading Democrats, are stronger than Ciattarelli.
None of these arguments strike me as necessarily true, though. Gubernatorial races are always a very different beast than the federal races in a state, as can be seen by the alternating governorships in NJ. Besides which, the Republicans are gaining in registration and did much better in the presidential race of 2024 than in 2020. The Democrats also seem stuck on promoting an unpopular left-wing agenda. It remains to be seen whether the Democrats will have a wave in 2025 based on anti-Trump sentiment. And Ciattarelli may or may not be a worse candidate than the Democrat.
The MSM never addresses one pertinent fact that should disturb their prognostications – it is the GOP’s “turn” to hold the governorship in NJ. The last time one party – the Democrats – won a third and fourth straight term for governor was in 1961 and 1965. Further, the parties have alternated every eight years from the 1993 election to the present. These statistics should demonstrate, not that there is a guarantee of a turnover, but that every eight years, the NJ electorate gets tired of the governing party and is inclined “to vote the bums out.” A good Democrat, running a good campaign, can trump that inclination, but we have no idea if that is what we will see in 2025.
I guess “we’ll see what happens” in NJ?
PS: The entire NJ legislature is up for election in 2025. Unfortunately, the Democrats are favored to retain their majority, although, because of redistricting, their “chances may have just gotten a little more challenging.”
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