Of the three countries that President Trump has taken steps to liberate, the tyranny closest to collapsing is Cuba’s. Many of Cuba’s young people have left, its Communist government is utterly incompetent, and, with the supply of free or cheap Venezuelan oil cut off, the Communists can’t keep the power on. So I think the downfall of Cuba’s Communist Party, which has misruled that island for more than 60 years, is only weeks or months away.
Earlier today, Miguel Díaz-Canel, President of Cuba and First Secretary of the Communist Party, confirmed reports that talks are underway with the United States:
The president said that the talks with the United States were led by him together with former President Raúl Castro and some members of the Communist Party, though he did not name who represented the United States.
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After the United States earlier this year carried out an operation to arrest Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Trump halted Cuba’s supply of Venezuelan oil and threatened to impose tariffs on other countries that sold crude oil to the island. This only worsened frequent power outages and fuel shortages among Cubans.Last week Trump told CNN that Cuba was “not far from collapsing” and that the government wants to “strike a deal as strongly as possible.”
The Cuban president said that the critical situation on the island “is tied to an energy blockade.”
Yes, in the short term. But the underlying reality is that Cuba’s government can exist only as the recipient of welfare from ideologically aligned states, formerly the U.S.S.R. and until now Venezuela.
Cuba may be negotiating, but its government has no chips with which to bargain. I think the only issues to be resolved involve the transition to democracy, restoration of trade with the U.S., and the personal security of current Communist leaders. I don’t think the Communist regime can hold out much longer, and would be surprised if a transition to democracy and a modern economy isn’t announced shortly.
If that happens, it will be a great day for Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban exiles. By all accounts, the top contenders for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination are Rubio and Vice President JD Vance. Rubio has said publicly that Vance is doing a great job, and the nomination should be his, if he wants it.
But that could change. Vance’s absence from the public stage during the assault on Iran seems to confirm his status as the representative of the faction of the party that construes “America First” to mean isolationism. Rubio will perhaps be the candidate of that portion of the Republican Party–the majority, I think–that adheres to the post-World War II consensus, now abandoned by the Democrats, that America needs to play the leading role as a force for good in the world. While predictions are likely foolish this far from the next election cycle, it does seem that this could be how the 2028 Republican race shapes up.
