Let’s be blunt. 2025 was not a good year for the global order. We may look back and realise that America’s disengagement from Europe was a turning point – when the system began to crumble. Not because of a single crisis, but because the foundations beneath us shifted, allowing multiple shocks to erode the rules-based order as we know it. Global power politics is back – and Britain is woefully unprepared.
As our adversaries probe for weakness and target society directly, our defences remain stuck in peacetime habits. More money is promised, but new NATO targets do not fully kick in until 2035. It is worth asking just how different, and more dangerous, the world will look by then.
Britain’s conventional forces are capable, professional, and brave -but they are stretched, ageing, and waiting too long for new equipment to arrive. Procurement delays, hollowed-out stockpiles, and a lack of numbers all point to a system designed for yesterday’s wars, not tomorrow’s threats.
Yet it is the grey zone that should concern us most. Cyber-attacks, sabotage, disinformation, election interference, coercive energy policy, and attacks on undersea cables now define modern conflict. We say Russia is at war with Ukraine—and it is. But we remain in denial about a harder truth: Russia is already at war with us. It is simply a war waged below the threshold of tanks and missiles, where hesitation and ambiguity are weapons in themselves.
This is not new territory for Britain. When Europe’s security has been threatened before, Britain has stepped up—often early, often at cost, but always with resolve. From the Cold War to the fight against terrorism, our security has depended on credible hard power backing clear political will. The lesson from history is simple: deterrence only works when it is real.
That is why overdue investment is not optional. We must strengthen our armed forces, yes- but also our cyber defences, intelligence capabilities, industrial resilience, and national preparedness. We should even be willing to consider the return of National Service. Security today is not just about numbers of ships or jets; it is about denying our enemies easy wins across every domain.
If we fail to invest now, we invite risk later. Britain does not need to be reckless. But it must never be unready. In a more hostile world, strength is not provocation. It is protection.
