In an interview with Politico, President Trump commented about the upcoming 2026 mid-term elections:
I think it’s going to be about the success of our country. It’ll be about pricing. Because, you know, they (the Biden administration) gave us high pricing, and we’re bringing it down. Energy’s way down. Gasoline is way down.
He also said he is confident Americans will be receptive to his economic message – that his administration is cleaning up the mess he inherited from Biden.
Addressing inflation and blaming former President Biden is a smart strategy for getting out the GOP base and other Trump voters, which have trouble turning out when the president isn’t on the ballot.
But you already know that; it is what I suggested the Trump team do.
However, it does seem that the economy and inflation are turning a corner in favor of the GOP. Politico had to report (in a disappointed tone) that the “economy is hotter than expected,” growing at an annualized rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter. They also wrote that inflation “cooled to an annual rate of 2.7 percent in November, the smallest year-over-year increase since July.”
Energy prices, especially, have seen marked reductions.
Without a recession or depression, a “blue wave” for the Democrats is almost impossible. The recent economic situation likely takes a “credible recession or stagflation scenario off the table,” which “weakens the economic grievances that typically power midterm punishment.” And as I said before, if the inflation rate in 2026 “continues to stay at around 3.0 percent, it would be unprecedented for the “in-party” Republicans to be punished by the electorate based on high inflation from four years ago.”
Certainly, we know that the Democrats are running substantially behind where they were in 2018.
Also, as my RedState colleague Rusty Weiss has reported, the Trump team plans to have the president campaign “full throttle” leading up to the 2026 elections, which is unprecedented for any president.
READ MORE: ‘Turnout Machine’ Trump to Go Full-Throttle in 2026 Midterm Blitz
In addition to trying to get out the Trump voters from 2024, such a campaign could potentially turn out the other registered voters who didn’t vote that year but favored the president. According to David Shor, a Democrat data scientist and political consultant, if those voters had voted, they would likely have expanded the Trump victory in the popular vote by more than three times the margin.
It probably helps that President Trump is so naturally exuberant, if not hyper, that he reputedly only sleeps four hours a night, recharges by downing constant Diet Cokes (but I think I could outdrink him on that), and regularly outlasts his thirty-something staffers. In that way, he seems similar to President Theodore Roosevelt, of whom the British Ambassador once affectionately remarked, following an exhausting day with that president: “You must always remember that the president is about six.”
Still, there is no question that President Trump needs to boost his approval ratings. Today, the RCP average has him at 43.1 percent approval, with 53.8 percent disapproval. This is a small rebound from the lowest point in his second term, where he was below the 43 percent that I typically mark as a danger zone for presidents. Presumably, Trump has seen a rise because of the growing good economic news and the end of the government shutdown drama. But for the GOP to win seats in the House or at least keep their loss below the net three seats needed to retain control of the chamber, Trump must go higher. In 1998 and 2002, the two previous (modern) times when the president’s party won seats in the midterms, the presidential approval was in the 60’s.
So, what campaign issues/strategies are out there that might help the Republicans keep control of the House?
- Karl Rove suggests promoting the GOP record on health care and on combating illegal aliens, with perhaps a presidential visit to the southern border to tout the administration’s efforts to secure it with stepped-up immigration enforcement. This advice is fine.
- More importantly, since negative campaigning always trumps positive campaigning, the GOP needs to pick out a “devil” to campaign against. Perhaps Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, or Zohran Mamdani would work?
- The crime wedge issue is still very viable, and the Republicans are already beginning their “pouncing.” With crime rates going down, the GOP has a good opportunity to contrast its own efforts to strengthen policing and to deport illegals (especially in Washington DC) and bash the still crazy soft-on-crime policies by Soros Democrats.
- Although property taxes are primarily a state issue, Republicans could campaign to “flip the script” on Democrat complaints about “affordability” by pushing for restrictions on the soaring property taxes. It’s forgotten now, but one of the populist issues used by Ronald Reagan was tax cuts, which catered to voters (and not just businessmen) who were tired of sky-high taxes.
Of course, there are also many other factors that will make an impact on the midterms, including the redistricting battles, the fundraising battles, the midterm convention(s), the $2000 tax checks, etc.
Luckily, the GOP always knows what the Democrats will run on: “Trump is the devil.” They will oppose him and the GOP on issue after issue, no matter how ridiculous their obviously contrarian and unpopular position is. Thus, they will continue to oppose the deportation of illegal gang bangers and terror supporters, the enforcement of tough criminal laws on vicious murderers, the use of the military and the national guard for policing dangerous cities, or the use of the military to target foreign drug dealers.
This is a tremendous weakness on their part, believing that Trump really is the devil, and the GOP can certainly make them pay for it.
I suspect that in those states and areas where the Democrats have the political edge, including possibly Maine, the Trump is the devil campaign will be enough. But not in the more competitive states/areas. And those are where the 2026 mid-term elections will be decided.
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