Democrats seem to be banking heavily on the idea that fanatical opposition to the Trump administration’s attempts to enforce our immigration laws is a political winner. Maybe so; it certainly has worked for them in Minnesota. But nationally, this Cygnal poll suggests that they are on the wrong side of the issue:
The national conversation pushed by Democrats and media outlets suggesting deportation is unpopular [is] wrong. Voters believe federal law should be enforced.
Key findings:
* 73% say entering the U.S. without legal permission is breaking the law.
I’m not sure what the other 23% think. It obviously is breaking the law to enter the country illegally.
* Americans support deporting those here illegally by a 2:1 margin (61–34).
* 54% want ICE enforcing federal immigration laws and removing illegal immigrants.
* 58% oppose defunding ICE—including majorities of Independents and swing voters.
Defunding ICE is Politically Toxic
When voters are told Democrats want to defund ICE or even shut down the government to stop ICE from enforcing immigration law, the political fallout is immediate and severe:
* The generic ballot flips from D+4 to R+0 if Democrats oppose ICE.
* If Democrats force a shutdown to defund ICE, Republicans take a 2‑point lead; that’s a 6-point shift away from Democrats over a single issue.
* Swing voters shift a staggering 16 points toward Republicans under a shutdown scenario.
The message is unmistakable: Democrats are far on one side of an issue where voters are in strong majorities on the other.
Rasmussen’s findings, released today, are less dramatic but favorable for the GOP:
The GOP leads by the same two-point margin – 46% to 44% for Democrats – on the question of who voters trust more to handle immigration, the only difference being that on this question the “not sure” amounts to 10%, because of statistical rounding.
It may be that the Trump administration’s relatively aggressive immigration enforcement will help the GOP in red states, and help the Democrats in blue states. If so, it will further widen the gap, which more and more looks unbridgeable, between red America and blue America.
