A new poll shows Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani holding a commanding 10-point lead in New York City’s mayoral race this week, with incumbent Mayor Eric Adams trailing in fourth place.
The Slingshot Strategies poll, conducted between July 2-6, showed socialist Mamdani capturing 35% of registered voters, with former Governor Andrew Cuomo at 25%, Republican Curtis Sliwa at 14%, and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams trailing with just 11%.
Adams faces an uphill battle with a dismal 28% approval rating and 62% disapproval. By contrast, Mamdani enjoys a net favorable rating of +4 (40% favorable vs. 36% unfavorable), while even the scandal-plagued Andrew Cuomo outperforms Adams, with 44% viewing him favorably and 46% unfavorably.
Other polls have found similar results, including a pro-Adams poll that still showed Mamdani leading with 41%, followed by Cuomo at 26%, Adams at 16%, and Sliwa at 10%.
Adams’ support has collapsed even among his traditional base, with only 16% of black respondents saying they would back the mayor in the general election, compared to 35% for Mamdani and 32% for Cuomo, according to the poll.
The current contest represents a significant fracturing of Democratic power, with incumbent Mayor Adams – who campaigned as a moderate, pro-police Democrat – now being challenged from both the far-Left in Mamdani and the establishment wing in Cuomo.
While Mamdani’s 35% support is far from a majority, Slingshot founding partner Evan Roth Smith emphasized to the New York Post that the electoral math looks increasingly difficult for Adams.
“The problem is the ballot is set. And the strongest Mamdani alternative in this poll is Andrew Cuomo, who just lost to him decisively in the Democratic primary,” Smith noted. “And the Mamdani alternative that seems to have the most momentum as a fresh alternative is Eric Adams, who’s polling barely in the double digits and seems to have lost credibility everywhere in the election.”
Adams has faced widespread dissatisfaction with his administration, which has faced multiple federal investigations and criticism over the handling of the migrant crisis and public safety issues.
Despite being a Democrat, Adams performs best among Republican voters, receiving 26% support compared to Mamdani’s 7%, although Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa leads that demographic with 43%.
“There’s simply not enough Republican support for someone who is a sitting Democratic mayor of New York,” Smith added. “So it’s really, really difficult when someone is polling at 11% and the ballot isn’t changing to see what the path to victory is.”
Mamdani, a 33-year-old Assemblyman from Queens, has positioned himself as an unapologetic socialist. He has advocated for rent control, increasing taxes on the wealthy, and reallocating police funding to social services – policies that have raised concerns among moderate Democrats and the business community.
“You have a large number of largely white, largely outer borough homeowners who are not necessarily Democrats, who are skeptical of Mamdani,” Smith explained. “The problem is getting those voters together behind either Andrew Cuomo or Eric Adams seems to still be a pretty tall order, and becomes even more difficult since they’re both in the race.”
Cuomo and Adams have engaged in public feuding, with each calling for the other to drop out to consolidate opposition against Mamdani, who won the Democratic primary with 56% to Cuomo’s 44% in the final round of ranked-choice voting.
Adams’ campaign spokesperson Todd Shapiro dismissed the poll in a statement to the New York Post, saying, “just weeks ago, Andrew Cuomo was ahead in multiple polls and then went on to lose the primary by double digits.”
“The latest Slingshot poll is just another example of how out-of-touch and unreliable political polling has become,” he said.
