Ministers could be forgiven for breathing a huge sigh of relief this week, as the flow of small boats across the Channel ceased, for seven straight days and counting.
But before Sir Keir Starmer brushes off his old ‘smash the gangs is now working’ speech, it’s got nothing to do with government policy, and everything to do with mother nature.
Unusually for the height of summer, gusty winds in the Channel have made it impossible for people smugglers to risk launching their flimsy boats towards the UK.
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Government-inspired or not, when it comes to the migrant crisis, ministers have to take the wins where they can because by Tuesday, the judiciary handed them a sobering punch to the guts.
The High Court’s decision to grant Epping Forest District Council a temporary injunction against the use of a local hotel for asylum seekers has brought the whole policy of migrant hotels into question.
Mark White’s Migration Watch: A sigh of relief followed by a punch in the guts – another rollercoaster week for the migration crisis
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Following the example at the Bell hotel in Epping, where the owners failed to get planning permission to change its use from a hotel into effectively an asylum seekers’ hostel, other local authorities are now actively considering similar legal challenges.
If this does prove to be the catalyst for multiple court battles, it could prove to be extremely problematic for the Government, as around 32,000 migrants are still being housed in hotels.
No sooner had ministers staggered to their feet and begun dusting themselves down over the Epping body blow than another punch to the guts came in the form of the latest migration statistics.
The year to June 2025 shows the highest ever number of applications for asylum, more than 111,000.
And the top nation claiming asylum is Pakistan, with more than 11,000 applications. A rise from around 8,000 asylum applications the previous year.
You’re not alone if you’re scratching your head, wondering about the scale of the war raging in Pakistan that propels that nation to the top of the tree when it comes to its citizens seeking refugee status.
And that week-long respite from small boat crossings was never going to last.
From early next week, expect business as usual in the Channel – more boats, more migrants, more asylum applications, more migrant hotel rooms – rinse and repeat.
