Nasa has revised its calculations for a “city killer” asteroid to collide with the Moon.
The updated assessment around 2024 YR4 follows fresh observations by the James Webb Space Telescope.
The space agency’s latest projections indicate the potentially hazardous asteroid could strike the Moon on December 22, 2032.
Now, updated calculations has increased the probability of a lunar impact from 3.8 per cent to 4.3 per cent.
Nasa estimates the asteroid weighs nearly a quarter of a million tonnes and could unleash devastating power if it strikes Earth
ESA
These refined calculations emerged from observations conducted with JWST’s Near-Infrared Camera in May, which enabled scientists to determine the space rock’s trajectory with unprecedented accuracy.
“As data comes in, it is normal for the impact probability to evolve,” Nasa representatives stated.
The agency confirmed that whilst Earth remains safe from any collision with the asteroid in the foreseeable future, the Moon faces an elevated risk.
The asteroid measures between 53 and 67 metres in diameter, roughly equivalent to the height of the Leaning Tower of Pisa.
Should such an object strike Earth, it would possess the destructive capacity to obliterate an entire city with force comparable to 500 Hiroshima bombs.
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
The probability has been updated
Nasa
First detected in December 2024, astronomers identified that 2024 YR4’s solar orbit regularly intersects with Earth’s path.
Initial trajectory calculations in February suggested a 3.1 per cent probability of Earth impact in 2032, prompting urgent monitoring efforts.
The James Webb Space Telescope conducted its most recent observations of the space rock before it travels beyond viewing range towards the outer solar system.
Scientists utilised the telescope’s emergency discretionary observation time for two viewing sessions in April and May.
Subsequent observations using both JWST and ground-based telescopes have eliminated any Earth impact risk, whilst simultaneously revealing the Moon’s increased vulnerability.
A lunar collision would generate a new crater but pose no threat to Earth’s natural satellite overall.
Some researchers view the potential impact as a unique scientific opportunity.
“We’ve got our fingers crossed for a moon impact,” said Alan Fitzsimmons, a physics and mathematics professor at Queen’s University Belfast who was not involved in the JWST observations.
“It would have no effect on Earth, but would allow us to study the formation of a lunar crater by a known asteroid for the very first time.”
