Nigel Farage has reportedly told donors he anticipates a deal or merger between his Reform UK party and the Conservatives before the next general election, reports the Financial Times.
One donor claimed Farage expects an agreement with the Tories, either a merger or a cooperation pact, to smooth Reform’s path to electoral victory.
The Reform leader allegedly insisted any deal would be on his terms, partly due to feeling betrayed by the Tories after their 2019 election pact, the donor added.
Another associate who recently met with Farage said the Reform chief called a merger or pact inevitable but noted it could take time.
Farage purportedly argued Reform’s stronger position means any agreement would favor his right-wing populist party.
Tories struggle as Reform surges
The Tories are floundering at around 17 percent in polls, on par with Labour and the Greens and their worst showing in decades, while Reform leads at 29 percent.
Farage’s discussions with donors highlight the hurdles he faces translating Reform’s political momentum into actual power, as a divided right-wing vote could enable liberal and left-leaning voters to unite against his party.
But Farage rejected the reported conversations, telling the Financial Times “sometimes people hear what they want to.”
“After next May, the Conservatives will no longer be a national party,” Farage said, pointing to devolved elections in Scotland and Wales and English local polls.
“I would never do a deal with a party that I don’t trust. No deals, just a reverse takeover,” he continued. “A deal with them as they are would cost us votes.”
The Conservatives have battled to rebound from a crushing defeat to Labour in last year’s election.
Reform gains ground with hardline stance
Reform has steadily eroded Tory support with its tough positions on migration and crime.
Farage has slammed the Conservatives for permitting record migration to the UK post-2019, a policy he claims betrayed their 2019 election deal.
His Brexit party, Reform’s forerunner, stood down parliamentary candidates in seats where Boris Johnson‘s Tories had a strong chance of beating Labour, helping Johnson achieve a large Commons majority in 2019.
Since last year, Farage has welcomed 20 ex-Conservative MPs to Reform, including former cabinet minister Nadine Dorries, a Johnson ally.
Defections mount but donors stick with Tories
Danny Kruger became the first sitting Tory to jump ship to Reform in September. Monday saw further defections, including ex-Conservative deputy chair Jonathan Gullis.
However, Tory donors have largely remained loyal to the Conservatives, the UK’s oldest and most successful party, as leader Kemi Badenoch’s performance is seen to be improving.
The Tories raised £6.3mn in donations in the year’s first half, Electoral Commission data shows, triple Reform’s £2.1mn, which relied on a small group of party insiders.
Reform supporters see pact as essential
Some Reform backers believe the party must strike a pact with the Tories to avoid splitting the right-wing vote by competing for the same seats.
Under the UK’s first-past-the-post system, the candidate with the most votes takes the seat, even without a majority. The next election is due by August 2029.
“They will have to come together,” one Reform donor said. “The Conservatives have been a successful political party forever because the left was always divided . . . If the right is divided, it can’t win.”
Badenoch has rejected claims the Tories could make a deal with Reform, saying earlier this year “I am the custodian of an institution that has existed for nigh on 200 years . . . I can’t just treat it like it’s a toy and have pacts and mergers.”
But last week she did not exclude some form of power-sharing agreement in Wales after the devolved election.
Tactical voting could thwart Farage
Anthony Wells, head of politics and elections at pollster YouGov, said that while Reform are “miles ahead in the polls”, tactical voting among more liberal and left-leaning voters could keep Farage out of power.
YouGov polling also found many Tory voters would not back Farage even if the alternative was Sir Keir Starmer‘s Labour.
“There are some Tories that really don’t like Reform so there will be some leakage from right to left,” Wells said.
