Last week, the national organization dedicated to electing Republicans to state offices announced that it was committing $2 million to Republicans in the Virginia House of Delegates to use toward taking back the House majority. What will that Republican State Leadership Committee money do, and will it be enough to help overcome Democrats’ already substantial fundraising lead?
According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Republicans raised roughly $2.2 million less than Democrats for House races in the first quarter of the year.
The Daily Signal spoke to Republican Party chair state Sen. Mark Peake, who told us that the state party was hoping to use that money to target three or four seats that it hopes to flip from the Democrats based on President Donald Trump’s electoral performance in 2024.
However, Republicans are also faced with a Democratic Party campaign to flip 12 House seats to them, meaning Republicans will need to “play defense” for those seats, which will also cost a good deal of that money.
A party insider told us that realistically, the number of seats they will have to defend is closer to six or seven, but we have already seen that the Democratic Party war chest is likely going to be much bigger than the GOP’s.
Republican Del. Kim Taylor from the 82nd District (parts of Petersburg and Prince George County) will be one of the most targeted seats by the Democrats because she won the newly redrawn district in 2023 by just 54 votes and Vice President Kamala Harris carried the district in 2024 with 51.5% of the vote.
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Taylor’s campaign has already spent the second highest amount of all House races of either party in the second quarter, only behind her opponent, Democrat Kimberly Adams. Adams has outraised Taylor 3-to-1 already this year. Two years ago, this district saw one of the top three most expensive House races in recent Virginia history, and it appears to be on track to top that, despite Taylor’s huge disadvantage in fundraising.
One veteran Virginia politician told The Daily Signal that “it’s way early to be burning through campaign money” like Taylor is, since early voting in the general election is not scheduled until September.
Ironically, Democrat U.S. Sens. Tim Kaine and Mark Warner have played a role in this, whether intentionally or not, when they recommended House of Delegates Minority Leader Todd Gilbert for the position of U.S. attorney for the Western District of Virginia, leading to Gilbert’s decision to step down from Republican caucus leadership while the vetting process is occurring.
Del. Terry Kilgore has taken the reins of the caucus. Kilgore is who will determine the distribution of the Republican State Leadership Committee contribution.
When contacted about that, Kilgore’s office told The Daily Signal that it wouldn’t discuss those matters, which certainly makes tactical sense. With the Democratic Party claiming to target 12 House seats, the concern is that Democrats will dictate what strategy the GOP takes.
Political resource management has historically been a touchy business among the Virginia GOP. With a scarcity of funds, comparatively good candidates often fall prey to decisions on things like “likelihood of winning” when the party and political action committees decide where to direct money and other resources.
The “likelihood of winning” factor frequently looks at a campaign’s internal fundraising, and if the numbers aren’t meeting expectations, resources may be directed elsewhere.
That is where the fundraising numbers paint a less rosy picture for candidates like Taylor who have not had the fundraising success that a campaign like former Republican Del. Tim Anderson from Virginia Beach has had or a war chest like Republicans Carrie Coyner in Chesterfield or Amanda Batten in Williamsburg have.
Kilgore’s question will have to be, if they had more money, would it help them to raise more money?
