Speaking with Jenrick in Manchester (Image: Express)
Robert Jenrick’s press conference, where he confirmed his defection to Reform UK, just about managed to snatch a narrow victory from the jaws of defeat. Today’s operation by Kemi Badenoch was undoubtedly ruthless, caught Jenrick and Farage on the back foot, and nearly bested the man who has for so long proved the catalyst for her opponents within the Conservative Party.
However this afternoon’s press conference saw Mr Jenrick fight back, with the usual gusto, vim and vigour to which we have become accustomed from this pint-sized converted right-wing zealot. While today’s events may have been chaotic and surprising, the substance of the issue – Mr Jenrick’s despair at the Tory Party – was not a shock to me. Why? Because he all-but told me his time in the Tory Party was over three months ago, in a quiet moment during the Daily Express pub quiz at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester.
Mr Jenrick’s mind felt made up in October (Image: Getty)
Between asking questions for thirsty punters gathered to hear my exquisite compèreship, I got chatting with our special guest Robert Jenrick – a politician I have admired for a long time, and with whom I have a relatively close relationship.
The reality at said conference was that, with the brief exception of an above-expectations speech by Kemi Badenoch, the Tories‘ annual gathering in Birmingham had been one of the most depressing weeks either of us had seen put on by the party.
The turnout was non-existent, the atmosphere was dead, and the weather reflected the gathering storm clouds for the party.
And in that moment, up on stage, Mr Jenrick simply said, “It feels like it’s over”.
He didn’t have to say much more for me to understand where his mind had settled.
That is not to say he was planning on jumping ship any time soon – heck, if it had felt that way I would have regaled this anecdote in print much sooner.
But it felt to me at that point he had made up his mind. Because while a lot of Tory MPs appear temporarily won over by Ms Badenoch’s improved PMQs performances, May will hit their hopes like a runaway freight train.
Ms Badenoch may live to regret today (Image: Getty)
Farage is largely right; in Wales, Scotland, and swathes of Tory suburbia, the party is set to collapse. PMQs is irrelevant, and Tory MPs will once again begin chatting about the leadership. Robert Jenrick knew things could not continue.
We now know that at the time Mr Jenrick and I nattered about his party’s fortunes on stage at the Impossible Bar in Manchester, he had just weeks before struck up first contact with Mr Farage to begin exploratory chats about his defection.
It explains the mood he was in at that conference. While Mr Farage claims there was only a 60:40 chance Rob would cross the floor, I think from those days in Manchester when he saw the haggard state of his once-great party, he had made his mind up. And it was a question not of if, but when.
His speech today at Reform HQ kicked bruises the Tory high command may have preferred were covered by shin pads.
The fundamentals about whether voters can believe what is promised by politicians who have spent so much time making enormous errors in government. CCHQ may hope they can refute these with old tweets from Jenrick, but Tory MPs, members and councillors will be more receptive to the substance of the case Mr Jenrick made.
When the dust settles tomorrow, the long and short of the saga is that the Tories have just lost one of the best performers, thinkers and campaigners.
That is not something the Tories can easily claim as a win.
