Keir Starmer’s “one in, one out” migrant deal with France has deterred a lower rate of Channel crossings compared with the Conservatives‘ Rwanda scheme, a study has suggested. Modelling shows the Government’s policy reduced arrivals by 9% against anticipated levels between July 10 and October 31.
In comparison, arrivals increased by 24% more than projected after the Rwanda scheme was scrapped following Labour’s general election win. However, after the Dublin III regulation ended after Brexit, arrivals soared 41% more than projected, the study, cited by the Telegraph, shows. Dublin III is a mechanism used to decide which EU member state is responsible for handling asylum claims.
The modelling aims to predict the number of small boat migrant arrivals per day based on the weather, conditions at sea, levels of illegal immigration across the continent, refused asylum applications, migrant deaths and governments’ policies.
It predicts 45,651 migrants will arrive on Britain’s shores this year. So far more than 39,000 migrants have reached Britain.
Data scientist, Dr Richard Wood, devised the modelling, which draws on information from sources, including the Met Office, Home Office and Coast Guard Agency.
Dr Wood’s study suggested the “one in, one out” scheme could have reduced migrant arrivals by 8.8% based on the numbers since July being 1,482 lower than the predicted 16,746.
He cautioned the 8.8% drop in arrivals was within the expected variation, suggesting the decrease might not be a direct result of the one in, one out scheme.
The Home Office said it didn’t recognise the analysis, is doing its own evaluation and the “one in, one out” policy has seen over 100 illegal migrants returned to France while the Rwanda scheme cost £700million but only saw four returns.
The “one in, one out” policy is an agreement between Britain and France which aims to reduce small boat crossings by returning individuals who have arrived illegally to France. It allows the same number of people who have arrived in France legally to enter the UK if they want to.
Under the Rwanda scheme, an asylum seekers who entered the UK illegally from a “safe” country could be sent to the east African country to have their asylum claim processed.
Successful asylum applications would mean refugee status would be granted and individuals permitted to remain in Rwanda.
Rejected applications would have forced individuals to seek asylum in another country or apply to settle in Rwanda for other reasons.
