I remain convinced that the Democrats’ 2025 government shutdown was mostly a dry run for a much more substantial shutdown that they contemplate for next year. They wanted to know whether a shutdown would work for them politically. If so, they will trot out the same strategy, in spades, in 2026.
Unfortunately, it did work. Chuck Schumer explains:
Co-host Joe Scarborough asked, “Let’s circle back here, Senator, because you caught a lot of grief because you weren’t able to stop a handful of Democrats that decided to reopen the government. But you said, at the time, politically, we have won this battle. I didn’t want the government to reopen, but we have won this battle politically. And a lot of people mocked you, but you look at what’s happened. Look at the fact that, again, Democrats won big in Virginia, won big in New Jersey, won big in California, then the government reopened, then you start looking at the numbers, Republicans doing worse in generic ballot tests than at any time since 2018, the first Democratic mayor elected in Miami in a generation. I could go on and on, but there is no doubt the government shutdown focused Americans on health care, and every time that happens, Democrats win, Republicans lose. What do you have to say about that?”
Scarborough is basically correct. Democrats have done very well in the low-turnout elections we have had post-shutdown, mostly but not exclusively in blue states.
Schumer responded, “Well, I say, Joe, no one likes a shutdown. It hurts people so much. And the shutdown was actually caused by Trump and the Republicans refusing to negotiate with us.
Actually, it was caused by the Democrats insisting on acting as though they had the majority, when they didn’t. They demanded that Republicans go along with repealing legislation that had been passed and signed into law just a few months earlier. It was political blackmail, pure and simple.
But you’re exactly right, people now see who’s on their side. And what they’re seeing is a crisis and they’re seeing Republicans standing in the way, they don’t understand, why don’t my Republican senators, why don’t my Republican House members vote to extend the credits so I won’t lose my health care, so my daughter will not be — her cancer cure will not be suspended? So, yes, the people across America are singing — are saying, very loudly, with their feet, with their votes, with their voices, with their protests, extend these credits, don’t plunge us into a healthcare crisis, which will occur January 1, unless the Republicans act.
This is a good example of a government-induced “crisis.” Obamacare made health insurance more expensive, so Democrats responded by subsidizing premiums. That didn’t do anything to make health care more “affordable,” it just shifted some of the burden to taxpayers. When that subsidy went away, per the legislation that was enacted by Democrats without a single Republican vote, Democrats acted as if it were somehow the Republicans’ fault. They relied on the politically sound principle that once a benefit is conferred, it can never be taken away.
More fundamentally, the Democrats are playing the age-old liberal game: many people would like to have something that they can’t afford to buy (often, as in this case, because the government has made it more expensive). So what does government do? Subsidize the desired good or service, by giving people money to pay for it. The inevitable effect of that subsidy–adding money on the demand side while doing nothing to address supply–is to increase the cost of the “unaffordable” product or service. If government distributed billions of dollars to help people buy automobiles, the result would be to drive up the price of cars. Obviously. It is the same with health care.
Obamacare was stupid policy that has had many bad results, but it is no surprise that many people would like to get government money to help them pay their bills. And many others, who fail to understand economics but are “compassionate,” endorse bad policy not on their own behalf, but on behalf of others.
So expect the Democrats to shut down the government again next year, in the runup to the off-year elections. Will their strategy work? In all likelihood, it will. I think it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Democrats will recapture the House next year, while I hope the GOP may be able to hang on to the Senate. President Trump will spend the remainder of his term fending off investigations and impeachment efforts from the Democratic House, while nothing will get through Congress.
So I hope Republican leadership in Congress has a plan to maximize the impact of the GOP’s slim majorities between now and January 2027.
