Just a few weeks ago, breathless pundits forecast ‘peak Farage’ as Reform’s poll leader dipped in the afterburn of schoolyard allegations and a so-called post-Budget ‘Badenoch bounce’. Yet, in the last week or so, poll after poll has shown Reform’s lead jump again. Stands back in amazement! The latest was Opinium, which kept Reform 11 points ahead on 31%. YouGov and More in Common meanwhile recorded a 2-point jump in Reform’s lead.
The EU may be many things but they ain’t fools and the Eurocrats can clearly read the tea leaves. This no doubt explains why Brussels is demanding any future UK government pays compensation if it quits Labour’s Brexit “reset” deal on food and drink. As first reported in the Financial Times, so confident is the EU of Reform winning the next election, it has labelled this the “Farage clause”.
Reform has pledged to rip up any deal finalised with the bloc (mind you, so have the Tories, if anyone believes what they promise).
In response, Reform leader Nigel Farage told the FT he would break Sir Keir Starmer‘s pact since “no parliament may bind its successor”, calling the whole thing “a democratic outrage”.
If Sir Keir gets his way, Britain would have to dynamically align with and apply new and existing EU rules governing animal and plant products. Of course, this will all be dismissed as standard contract law stuff, but we all know what the EU fears is going to happen in 2029.
The big test for Reform now will come in May when local elections are held nationwide. While Farage’s party is set to make big gains, any victory will be tainted by the fact Labour is postponing several mayoral elections Reform was set to win.
While Labour has dismissed claims of conspiracy – maintaining postponements are all about local government reforms – Farage and co understandably smell a rat.
No doubt a rat is also smelled given what looks like a stitch-up to penalise the UK should a future government seek to get the UK out of the EU’s regulatory spider’s web.
We know Labour is looking to suck Britain back into the EU’s orbit. Heck, even Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy recently suggested the UK could consider re-joining a customs union.
No wonder the public is taught to see Brexit as a failure given the whole thing was cocked up by the Tories, talked down by Labour, and none of the benefits of Brexit have been realised.
For example, the UK could have diverged from the EU, applying smarter regulation in areas like AI and green energy. The Conservatives and Labour instead failed to do this, preferring instead to copy EU rules to maintain market access, missing the chance to tailor regulation strategically.
Likewise, freed from the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy, the UK could reward outcomes rather than acreage, meanwhile prioritising innovation. The UK could also have completed more trade deals – leveraging London’s legal and financial frameworks – or positioned itself as a first launch country for innovative fintech. All doable. All botched.
Labour and its chums in Brussels want to tie the UK’s hands and bind a future Reform government. Farage will be wise to the tricks. A future Reform government knows Britain has a world and Commonwealth to trade with, plus innovative areas to get ahead in.
