The UK could face temperatures soaring to 40C by the end of June, according to weather forecast models that show exceptional heat is possible this early in the season.
While it is unlikely to happen, extreme temperature scenarios have emerged from recent model runs, indicating that such intense heat could reach parts of the UK under current climate conditions.
North African air sources, which influence British weather patterns, have been warming at a faster rate than the global average during summer months.
Weather forecasting models from America’s GFS system have produced several runs pointing to this exceptional heat scenario, with some showing temperatures around 40C for parts of England.
Some parts of England could reach up to 40C
PA
However, meteorologists are urging caution about these predictions.
Currently, only isolated model runs have indicated such extreme temperatures, meaning there remains just an outside chance of this heat materialising towards June’s end.
The European ECMWF subseasonal prediction system suggests high pressure will be more frequent than average during the final week of June.
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This high pressure is likely to be centred over south-western Britain, which could maintain warm conditions whilst potentially limiting the arrival of exceptionally hot air masses.
Despite some cooler periods during early June, the month is expected to be warmer than average overall for Britain.
Southern Europe is expected to experience predominantly hot conditions, continuing a pattern seen in recent summers.
It also increases the likelihood of exceptionally hot weather developing over Britain at some point this summer, particularly in inland areas of southern and eastern England.
The UK experienced its driest March since 1961
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Dry soils from the very dry and sunny spring could intensify any heat that does arrive.
The UK has experienced very little rainfall across the course of the spring, with the month of March being the driest since 1961.
Scotland has already warned of drought in the coming months, issuing an “early warning” of water scarcity in April.
According to the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM), rainfall needs to be at the level of 2012, when record-breaking downpours caused flooding throughout England, to avoid drought.
