That was the title of a Wall Street Journal editorial on Friday. The editors’ point is that, while the focus in recent days has been on redistricting, it is long-term demographic trends that threaten the Democrats’ future in the House of Representatives:
The real problem for Democrats is that progressive policies are driving population flight, which on current trend could cost their states 10 House seats after 2030.
Migration from blue to red states is one of the great stories of the age. …
***
Start with the raw numbers. Between 2020 and 2024, California (-1,465,116), New York (-966,209) and Illinois (-418,056) lost the population equivalent of Kansas to other states. Texas (747,730) and Florida (872,722) gained the equivalent of West Virginia. Utah, Idaho, Arizona and North Carolina also experienced a rush of newcomers.
This chart tells the story:
These trends were somewhat muted following the 2020 census:
Population flight cost Democratic states several House seats during the last Congressional reapportionment following the 2020 Census, but they lost fewer seats than expected.
*** The Census Bureau in 2022 reported that New York’s population was over-counted by 3.4% while there were under-counts in Florida (3.5%) and Texas (1.9%).
Such inaccuracies may have cost Florida and Texas an additional House seat and given Rhode Island, New York and Minnesota one each they shouldn’t have received.
With an accurate initial count, Minnesota’s Congressional delegation would have dropped from eight to seven. I’m sorry it didn’t happen: losing a seat in the House might have been the shock needed to wake up local voters. But the 2020 overcount only delayed the inevitable:
[I]f population trends continue, Republican states stand to gain at least 10 House seats in the 2030 reapportionment.
The left-leaning Brennan Center estimated in December that Texas and Florida would each gain four House seats while Utah, Idaho, North Carolina and Arizona would each add one. California would lose four, New York two, and Oregon, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island one each.
It is hard to see how blue state governors like Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker and Kathy Hochul can reverse these trends. They are committed to the left-wing policies that are causing voters to flee their states. They may think they can make up the difference with immigrants, but, as the Journal editorial points out, immigrants who initially settle in California are rapidly abandoning that state for Texas and Florida.
There are other demographic trends that this editorial doesn’t mention. Conservatives, on average, have considerably more children than liberals. And all minorities, whom Democrats once counted on to create a permanent majority, are moving toward the GOP.
Democrats are now openly admitting that they want to tear up the Constitution to, among other things, do away with the Senate. If current demographic trends continue, they will have to do away with the House as well.
