Ernest Hemingway famously wrote when describing bankruptcy: It happens “gradually, then suddenly.” The same is true of dictatorships. They project an illusion of permanence—until the moment the façade shatters and decades of repression give way to rapid collapse. Nowhere is this dynamic more evident than in the Islamic Republic of Iran, a theocracy that has ruled for 46 years through corruption, brutality, and systemic mismanagement.
In recent weeks, a severe water crisis has pushed Iran into international headlines. President Masoud Pezeshkian himself warned that it is very feasible that water rationing in Tehran may follow. Several of Tehran’s life-sustaining reservoirs are already below ten percent capacity.
The regime claims this crisis is the result of uncontrollable natural forces. But experts overwhelmingly point to man-made causes: decades of mismanagement, dam-building and diversion projects controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the regime’s chronic plundering of resources. Drought may be real, but the catastrophic scale of the disaster is the regime’s own creation.
And the water crisis is only one among many. Fuel and electricity shortages have sparked protests. The economy is collapsing. Unemployment is soaring. Public services are failing. The environment is deteriorating at an alarming pace. A wildfire razed portions of the ancient Hyrcanian Forests, a UNESCO World Heritage site home to many endangered species, in November. Meanwhile, half the adult population lacks meaningful work, yet the regime pours billions into the IRGC, missile programs, regional militias, and vast surveillance networks designed to suppress domestic dissent.
This convergence of crises lays bare a truth that the overwhelming majority of Iranians have long understood: the ruling elite sees government not as a vehicle for public service, but as an apparatus for oppressive domination. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his loyalists view power as something to be hoarded, not exercised for the public good. Their instinct is not to solve crises but to weaponize them.
We in the United Kingdom—and in other democracies—recognize that the role of government is to serve and empower its people. The Iranian people understand this as well, and for years they have been working to reclaim their country and build a secular, democratic republic grounded in the rule of law and equal rights for every citizen.
This was made unmistakably clear at a landmark gathering in Washington, D.C. last month, when more than 1,000 Iranian American activists convened to discuss regime change and the path toward a democratic future. I had the privilege of addressing the event and listening to voices from across the Iranian diaspora—women, youth, academics, former political prisoners—all united around Maryam Rajavi’s Ten-Point Plan for a free, democratic Iran.
One essential component of this movement, often under-reported in Western media, is the work of the PMOI/MEK Resistance Units inside Iran. These are organized, disciplined, and increasingly bold networks of men and women who carry out acts of civil defiance, sabotage the regime’s repressive infrastructure, and keep the flame of nationwide resistance alive despite extraordinary personal risk. Their activities range from disrupting state propaganda broadcasts to torching symbols of the regime’s authority and organizing protests. The existence and vivid expansion of the Resistance Units demonstrate both the depth of public opposition and the presence of a highly organized alternative to clerical rule.
This reality also exposes the hollowness of claims by Reza Pahlavi—the so-called “baby shah”—that he represents the Iranian people’s future. The Iranian public has firmly rejected both the monarchy and the theocracy. The youth driving today’s resistance have no interest in replacing one form of dictatorship with another. They want democracy, not dynastic nostalgia; accountability, not inherited power. The streets of Iran have spoken clearly: the future will not be authored by exiled pretenders to a throne that was in the dustbin of history in 1979 for its brutality and rampant corruption.
The Washington meeting featured discussions on the role of women, youth, minorities, and scientists. Each conversation made clear that Iran’s multiple crises have united diverse groups behind a common goal. That unity has been visible in the country’s three nationwide uprisings since 2018, culminating in the 2022 uprising —the greatest challenge to the regime since 1979. It took extraordinary brutality to suppress it, and the crackdown continues. More than 3,000 people have been executed in the past three years. At least 17 PMOI members now sit on death row. And in July, a regime-aligned outlet openly called for a repeat of the 1988 massacre of political prisoners that claimed 30,000 lives, 90 percent of them PMOI activists.
The regime’s obsession with annihilating the PMOI is the clearest indication of where it perceives the real threat. And it is right to be afraid. Its crises are multiplying. Its legitimacy is gone. And Iranians are openly expressing confidence in the NCRI’s ability to guide a democratic transition.
As international media continue to cover Iran’s water, economic, and political crises, they must also grapple with an unavoidable conclusion: if these trends continue, regime change in Iran is not only possible, but inevitable. Dictatorships fall the way Hemingway described—gradually, then suddenly. Iran is already deep into the “gradually” phase. The “suddenly” may come sooner than many expect.
Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.
Please help us continue to report on the administration’s peace through strength foreign policy and its successes. Join RedState VIP and use promo code FIGHT to get 60% off your VIP membership.
