But what it is, is entirely unclear. President Trump has announced a breakthrough in negotiations with Iran:
President Trump said Iran has agreed to his biggest demand in order to stop the war: no nuclear weapons.
“They’ve agreed,” he said. “They will never have a nuclear weapon. They’ve agreed to that.”
Tehran has not stated that publicly — and denied even talking to the US. But Trump has made clear that the no-nukes demand is necessary for the US to stop its military campaign.
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“We’re actually talking to the right people and they want to make a deal so badly, you have no idea how badly they want to make a deal,” the president said.
Are we talking to the right people? Are we sure we know who the right people are? Are we really talking to anyone, or is Trump just trolling to sow confusion in the enemy’s ranks? Assuming talks are really taking place, is Trump negotiating from a position of strength, having devastated Iran’s military? Or has the magnitude and persistence of Iran’s response surprised and dismayed Trump and his advisers, so that Trump is desperately looking for a way out?
I have absolutely no idea.
Meanwhile, aerial attacks are continuing, although at a reduced pace. And the 82nd Airborne is on its way to the Middle East.
The Jerusalem Post says Israelis are skeptical of progress in peace negotiations:
The chances of an agreement between the United States and Iran are “very small,” Israeli officials told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.
The gap stems not only from US demands – including restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz – but also from Iranian demands.
“At the moment, the Iranians are insisting on American compensation, as well as guarantees from the administration that there will be no further action against Iran as part of any agreement,” two sources involved in mediation efforts told the Post.
So military preparations are continuing, especially with regard to Kharg Island:
The additional forces include US Marines intended to enable a potential takeover of Iran’s Kharg oil island in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump has not yet decided whether to launch a ground operation to seize the island, which could help ensure freedom of navigation. The decision depends in part on ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
On Sunday, the Post reported that senior American officials told Israeli counterparts that “there will probably be no choice but to carry out a ground operation on Kharg Island.”
The amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli and the amphibious transport dock USS New Orleans, carrying about 2,500 Marines, are expected to arrive in the region this weekend as part of the first Marine reinforcement in the Middle East.
Other forces are on the way as well.
I would hate to see the conflict end without the replacement of the Islamic Republic by a modern state, but that probably won’t happen without a real ground war, which is out of the question. So perhaps President Trump’s best option is to declare victory–it will be many years before the IRGC, now the effective rulers of Iran, can rebuild its missile and nuclear capabilities, or free up substantial resources to support terrorist groups like Hezbollah and Hamas–and go home.
But Trump doesn’t seem inclined to take the easy way out; nor, on the other hand, will he do what would be needed to score a decisive victory. The middle path, if he takes it, could be the most perilous, and might even turn into the fiasco that Democrats are hoping for.
