On CNN recently to discuss the “Big, Beautiful Bill” (BBB), political analyst and former (Bill) Clinton consultant from 1992, Paul Begala claimed that the BBB was a “political death warrant” that will cause the Republican Party to lose more than the 41 House seats they lost in 2018.
I guess we Republicans can all go home now and concede. After all, how can we argue with the guy who won one political race in 1992 thanks to a generational talent – Bill Clinton – and then promptly was kicked to the curb by Clinton in 1995 in favor of Dick Morris?
In reality, not much has changed since my last column discussing the approaching 2026 mid-terms, and it is quite unclear whether the BBB will have a yuge impact, let alone a yuge negative impact, on the 2026 vote.
As always, we start with the RCP average. President Trump is currently at 46.3 percent approval, to 50.5 percent disapproval, which is down from the last time I mentioned it back on May 29, but still within the margin of error of any polling. And it is far better than the 43 percent I have marked as a danger zone for an incumbent president.
And then there is Congressional approval, which does not appear to be that good for Democrats but looks surprisingly rosy for Republicans.
Only after we focus on approval numbers do we consider the issues, like the BBB, and their potential influence on the 2026 mid-term elections. But the issues, including BBB, are not yet clear cut, and there is going to be a campaign first, in which the Democrats will push their propaganda, see Paul Begala, and the Republicans will push the truth, see Karl Rove, who has lauded BBB implementing its new 80-hour-a-month work requirements for certain Medicaid recipients.
Maybe it’s just me, but I think the moderate voters are more likely to support forcing the able-bodied to work for their benefits. Certainly, we have seen the popularity of such concepts in the 70s, 80s, and 90s, especially.
Finally, let’s not forget that the Democrats are still stuck in their Doom Loop, and, as a result, they are in bad political shape:
The party’s favorability rating is still dreadful, they have only a modest lead in the generic congressional vote for 2026 and their prospects for taking back the Senate are slim. To most voters, the 2025 Democrats seem awfully similar to the 2024 Democrats they didn’t like much at all.
Now, let’s look at some individual races for Congress.
First, in the Senate:
Georgia: Jon Ossoff / 50.62% D / Tilt D
Ossoff is very endangered, but he has raised $11 million, a huge amount of early money for this race, and his most dangerous potential opponent, Gov. Brian Kemp, has declined to challenge him. Rep. Buddy Carter has launched a campaign, as well as a lower-level statewide official named John King. Rep. Mike Collins has also been mentioned. Others may join. Ossoff should have a narrow edge, despite his being rather left-leaning when it comes to important matters such as “trans rights” and Israel and foreign policy. The national environment will certainly matter in this race.
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (retiring) / 57.76% R / Solid R
With McConnell retiring, and with Democrat Gov. Andy Beshear staying out, the action is in the Republican primary. Rep. Andy Barr is squaring off against former Kentucky Attorney General and former unsuccessful candidate for governor, Daniel Cameron, with Nate Morris, a wealthy GOP donor, also in the race. Both Barr and Cameron are establishment types; Morris is the anti-establishment candidate with the backing from Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA, a conservative interest group. Right now, any one of the three could win this very fluid race, and would be the heavy favorite for the general.
Maine: Susan Collins / 50.98% R / Lean R
Even if the economy is bad, Collins should have the edge here. She has developed a strong, independent reputation, which is important in a Democrat state. Despite her votes against the GOP and Trump, she is unlikely to face repercussions in the primary. (As my old boss, Sen. Rick Santorum, once said, Collins is with us when we need her to be.) President Trump is unlikely to oppose her. For example, Collins voted to debate the BBB before voting against it in its (successful) final passage, a smart move for her. Democrats are pushing the governor as a challenger, but at age 77, she is unlikely to run in such a risky race. Neither Democrat U.S. Rep. is going to run, either. So, a second-tier challenger will have to step up. Although Collins’ polling has not been spectacular, she was also down significantly in the polling in her last reelection bid and still won by a healthy margin. There is no reason for that to change here, especially now that, as Chair to the Appropriations Committee, she can funnel money to the state. (See how that worked for Robert Byrd in WV.)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (retiring) / 56.64% D / Lean D
After Shaheen’s retirement, the Democrats have largely unified around Rep. Chris Pappas, who represents half the state. Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who ran competitively against Shaheen in 2014, announced and is the likely GOP candidate. Pappas should have the edge over Brown, unless he makes some mistakes.
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (retiring) / 48.69% R / Toss Up but Tilt D if former Gov. Cooper runs.
Tillis, after years of poking President Trump and other Republicans in the political eye, has, unsurprisingly, decided to retire. Right now, both parties are waiting to see if Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law, will enter the race on the Republican side, or former Governor Roy Cooper will jump in on the Democrat side. Lara Trump is an unknown – she has the magic name but also has no prior campaign experience (as a candidate), and as a result, it is unclear what she brings to the race other than her name and ability to raise money. If she doesn’t enter, the GOP has a large potential number of first-tier candidates, including the RNC Chairman Michael Whatley, and Reps. Harrigan, Hudson, Moore, and Murphy. Cooper’s entrance would give the Democrats an edge for the general; he has been elected twice as governor and before that elected solidly to four terms as the state attorney general. Right now, one-term former Democrat Rep. Wiley Nickel is in the race, who is less impressive. If Cooper enters, the race moves narrowly Democrat because of his strengths, and even though the GOP normally has the advantage in federal elections. If not, the race reverts to a pure toss-up, with too many unknowns.
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham / 54.44% R / Likely R
Graham is safe in the general election but is facing opponents from the conservative and/or MAGA side in the primary. So far, Andre Bauer, a former two-term Lieutenant Governor, has gotten into the race. But Bauer ended his prior career losing badly in successive races for governor and then for U.S. Rep., and has a reputation as sort of a flake. Trump is unlikely to endorse another Republican in this race, as he and Graham get along, and Graham is using Chris LaCivita, the Trump campaign manager, as a political advisor. (Full disclosure – I worked with LaCivita on a political race and believe he is very competent.) There are no strong Democrats to run against Graham.
Texas: John Cornyn / 53.51% R / Lean R
Cornyn is being challenged by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt is still considering. Paxton has a solid polling edge over Cornyn, which is never a good sign for an incumbent. Paxton is considered more MAGA, but it is unclear that President Trump would support him over Cornyn. In fact, Trump might end up endorsing Cornyn if he fears a bitter primary and a weaker general election candidate could cost the GOP this seat, as Paxton also has a corruption scandal hanging over his head. The Democrats have a strong second-tier candidate here – former two-term Congressman and NFL player, Colin Allred. However, in the last election, Trump and Sen. Cruz won more solidly than they did before, especially as many Hispanic areas went more Republican. Basically, Allred is just hoping that a bitter battle in the GOP leads to a weakened Paxton as the nominee, combined with a bad national environment, and he (Allred) is able to take advantage. So far, this is still a stretch.
Second, in the House:
Kentucky CD 4: Thomas Massie / Solid R; Lean Massie
While this district will not be at all competitive in the general election, there may be a competitive primary here. Massie is a seven-term libertarian isolationist, who has drawn the ire of the Trump administration for opposing the BBB and other (primarily) economic positions. White House officials have hosted Kentucky state Sen. Aaron Reed as a potential opponent for Massie. Trump political advisers Chris LaCivita and pollster Tony Fabrizio have launched a super PAC directed at defeating Massie that’s already running a TV ad attacking him. We can expect Jewish groups (and other pro-Israel groups) to also jump in, as Massie is a fierce opponent of Israel and some contend an antisemite as well. Meanwhile, Elon Musk has vowed to support Massie for opposing the BBB, and Massie has strong connections to and constituent services in the district, which may protect him. But up to now, he has never been so strongly opposed by a GOP president.
Maine CD 2: Jared Golden / 50.35 % / Tilt D
Golden is a four-term member representing the Republican leaning district of ME. He has won nothing but narrow victories, the last by less than 3000 votes. Golden is being challenged by former two-term ME Gov. Paul LePage, and a recent poll had LePage up 50 percent to 47 percent. However, Golden gets a lot of credit for being a moderate who is willing to work with Republicans, and LePage is coming off a 2022 solid loss to sitting ME Gov. Janet Mills, plus he is 76 years old. As a result, I suspect that Golden will have the edge in this race.
Nebraska CD 2: Don Bacon (retiring) / Lean D
Longtime political survivor Bacon, a former General, is retiring, and his seat continues to lean even more strongly Democrat despite the state being heavily Republican (a total failure in redistricting by the Republicans). Omaha City Council member Brinker Harding has announced for the Republicans, and others may join. A handful of Democrats — including state Sen. John Cavanaugh, who is the son of a former Congressman from this district — have already announced bids. This district will be hard to hold with Bacon bowing out.
So, putting all this together, not much has changed – the GOP is still safe in the Senate, and the House is competitive, slightly leaning Democrat, at this point. But, so far, there is “no evidence” that the Republicans are heading for a blowout loss.
Enjoy your July 4th!
Editor’s Note: We’re holding a BIG BEAUTIFUL SALE to celebrate the passage of the OBBB. President Trump’s agenda is moving forward — celebrate with us and support our reporting as we Make America Great Again. Use promo code POTUS47 to get 74% off your membership.
