President Trump totally broke open the war in Gaza and perhaps put together a workable peace plan.
President Trump has received an inordinate amount of hatred for actually being good at foreign policy. Perhaps the best thing about President Trump’s first term was his foreign policy. He has always been heterodox in his foreign policy views, and that heterodoxy has actually served him quite well, particularly in the Middle East.
He didn’t get the credit he deserved over the Abraham Accords. He has not received the credit that he deserves for his continuing support of Israel in the face of genocidal hatred and terrorism from Hamas.
And now he has somehow drawn a fascinating path to peace in the Gaza Strip.
On Monday, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met for a long time before actually going out and doing a full press conference where they unveiled President Trump’s peace plan, which has been signed on to by Israel, the United States, Qatar, all of the regional players, and by the Europeans, which is an amazing achievement for the president.
Let’s be clear: Hamas has not accepted this deal yet, but the deal totally changes the game.
Why?
Because if everybody is on the same page but Hamas, that means that Hamas is totally isolated. And Hamas has relied on the kindness of strangers. Hamas has relied for this entire war on having the public relations of Qatar on its side, of having other countries in the Middle East on its side, and of having the Europeans on its side.
Just a week ago, we were talking about how the Europeans were moving steadily and not so gradually toward declaring a Palestinian state in the aftermath of the worst terror attack on Israel in its history and the worst attack on Jews since World War II. That is how badly things were going for Israel in the PR war.
That was because there is a strong drive among the “suicidally empathetic” — as the philosopher Gad Saad has said — in Europe to side with the people who wish to destroy Western civilization.
But now President Trump has now done something incredible. He has put together a deal that is workable, a deal that has now been signed off by the Israelis and from everybody else in the region. Even the Europeans have signed off on it.
Whenever you hear that a deal has been signed off on by everyone, the inclination is to say that it is a weak deal. That’s just the reality. And indeed, when you read the deal, you could find points where certainly quibbles would be necessary.
But overall, what President Trump has done here is to achieve the strategic goals of the West. He has allowed Israel to achieve its strategic goals in Gaza if Hamas were to accept this deal while allowing for a path forward.
Some points regarding the deal:
“Gaza will be a deradicalized terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbors.”
That’s more of a goal than it is an actual plan. Whether that goal is achieved depends on whether the rest of the plan is actually achieved.
“Within 72 hours of Israel publicly accepting this agreement, all hostages, alive and deceased, will be returned.”
That is to prevent Hamas from basically dragging out this process. If we get to 73 hours and Hamas has not handed over hostages, Israel will have every right and capacity to go back in.
“Once all hostages are released, Israel will release 250 life sentence prisoners plus 1,700 Gazans who were detained after 7 October 2023, including all women and children detained in that context. For every Israeli hostage whose remains are released, Israel will release the remains of 15 deceased Gazans.”
This sort of math makes me insane. It has always made me insane. It is ridiculous for any Western country to trade live terrorists for hostages.
“Entry of distribution and aid in the Gaza Strip will proceed without interference from the two parties through the United Nations and its agencies, and the Red Crescent, in addition to other international institutions not associated in any manner with either party. Opening the Rafah crossing in both directions will be subject to the same mechanism implemented under the 19 January 2025 agreement.”
This should be a sticking point. Israel is giving a lot on this. The United Nations has been and will continue to be a tool for terrorism. It always has been. It will continue to be.
“Gaza will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, responsible for delivering the day-to-day running of public services and municipalities for the people in Gaza. This committee will be made up of qualified Palestinians and international experts, with oversight and supervision by a new international transitional body, the ‘Board of Peace,’ which will be headed and chaired by President Donald J. Trump, with other members and heads of state to be announced, including Former Prime Minister Tony Blair.”
This is Israel’s guarantee against the possibility that Hamas immediately reconstitutes and that the aid that flows in is somehow handed over directly to a reconstituted Hamas by another name. In reality, it’ll have to be run by Tony Blair with input from the United States, because the reality is that there are not a whole hell of a lot of “Palestinian moderates.”
And this brings us to the question of the Palestinian Authority.
According to the Trump plan:
“This body will set the framework and handle the funding for the redevelopment of Gaza until such time as the Palestinian Authority has completed its reform program, as outlined in various proposals, including President Trump’s peace plan in 2020 and the Saudi-French proposal, and can securely and effectively take back control of Gaza. This body will call on best international standards to create modern and efficient governance that serves the people of Gaza and is conducive to attracting investment.”
Let’s be real about that. It’s never going to happen. The Palestinian Authority is corrupt top to bottom. Every Arab and Jew in the region knows this. This is not a secret. The reality is the Palestinian Authority is wildly unpopular in Judea and Samaria, thanks to its incredible levels of corruption, thanks to the fact its leadership bilks the population and aid agencies out of literally billions of dollars.
The PA is never going to end up governing Gaza. They can’t even govern cities in Judea and Samaria, in Nablus and Jenin. They’re not going to govern any of these areas. So this is a pipe dream. Presumably, that pipe dream is put out there for the pleasure of various Arab nations who are signing on to President Trump’s agreement here.
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Trump’s plan is going to be dependent on decent governance. Unfortunately, it is just a fact that the vast majority of Palestinians support terrorism. There is zero, literally zero evidence that Palestinians overall do not support terrorism. Every single Palestinian poll statistic ever taken shows a vast bulk of Palestinian Arabs supporting terrorism against Jews and the destruction of the State of Israel.
“Hamas and other factions agree not to have any role in the governance of Gaza directly, indirectly or in any form. All military terror and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities, will be destroyed and not rebuilt. There will be a process of demilitarization of Gaza under the supervision of independent monitors, which will include placing weapons permanently beyond use through an agreed process of decommissioning, and supported by an internationally funded buy back and reintegration program all verified by the independent monitors.”
Why would Hamas accept the deal if they’re going to have no governance power in the Gaza Strip? Why would they give up the hostages?
Because if they have no hope, if it turns out that even their terror masters in Qatar aren’t behind them … But let’s be clear: Qatar plays both sides of the table. They always have. Qatar could have put pressure on Hamas to give up the hostages. On October 8, they could have.
Qatar did not do that. Instead, Qatar sponsored Hamas. Qatar apparently has joined in on the process of isolating Hamas. That is the only reason why this has happened and it is worthwhile noting the reason that Qatar did that, at least in part, is because they are quite concerned that if this war continues, Israel might say, you know what? It’s not worth it anymore. They go into Qatar and they kill Hamas members in Qatar.
And Qatar does not wish to be in the crossfire at this point. So that unsuccessful strike that Israel launched directly into Qatar to kill Hamas’s leadership may have been tactically unsuccessful, but it was strategically successful in putting pressure on Qatar to join the international consortium dedicated to ending Hamas rule over the Gaza Strip.
That would be the only reason why Hamas would give up the ghost here.
“The United States will work with Arab and international partners to develop a temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF) to immediately deploy in Gaza.”
What’s important there is that this international stabilization force will not be a nontransparent force. It will have coordination, including Israel. Israel is simply not going to give up all eyes on the ground and trust the Egyptians and Jordanians, all of whom have been acting, by the way, in tacit consultation with Hamas throughout this conflict.
“While Gaza redeployment development advances, and when the PA reform program is faithfully carried out, the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognize as the aspiration of the Palestinian people.”
Notice what that isn’t. That is not a recognition of a Palestinian state. That is not even a recognition of a real pathway toward a Palestinian state. It is a recognition that if gigantic changes happen on the ground and the Palestinian Authority somehow moderates and somehow does all of the reform, and that if all of these hurdles are jumped, then maybe at some point there’s a pathway to a Palestinian state.
What this doesn’t do is say there must be a Palestinian state in order for there to be a settlement in Gaza.
The Trump administration is making no bones about that. And now neither is the international community.
All in all, it’s a very good start.
