Will Donald Trump, the peacemaker, go to war against the Maduro regime in Venezuela? Some observers think so. Yesterday the Senate voted down a joint resolution directing the Trump administration not to take military action against Venezuela without Congressional authorization. These are the key elements of the resolution:
(4) The publicly reported authorization for the Central Intelligence Agency to conduct covert lethal operations within Venezuela, the significant augmentation of United States Armed Forces assets, personnel, and operations in proximity to Venezuela, and statements from United States Government officials regarding planning for ground strikes within Venezuela indicate imminent involvement of United States Armed Forces in hostilities within or against Venezuela.
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(a) Termination.—Pursuant to section 1013 of the Department of State Authorization Act, Fiscal Years 1984 and 1985 (50 U.S.C. 1546a), and in accordance with the provisions of section 601(b) of the International Security Assistance and Arms Export Control Act of 1976, Congress hereby directs the President to terminate the use of United States Armed Forces for hostilities within or against Venezuela, unless explicitly authorized by a declaration of war or specific authorization for use of military force.
The resolution failed in the Senate on a party line vote, 49-51. To some extent, of course, this is the tussle between the president and Congress over the use of military force that has been going on for a long time. The resolution cites the War Powers Act, long a bone of contention and constitutional debate.
It is true, in any event, that a major military buildup is taking place off the Venezuelan coast. From the Miami Herald:
The U.S. Navy’s newest and most powerful aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, is expected to reach the Caribbean early next week, marking a dramatic escalation in the American military buildup near Venezuela amid growing speculation over possible U.S. strikes against Nicolás Maduro’s regime. The $13 billion supercarrier sailed west through the Strait of Gibraltar on Monday morning, ship-spotters confirmed, making about 15 knots and accompanied by the destroyer USS Bainbridge, according to The Maritime Executive.
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According to estimates cited by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the U.S. military will soon have 13 vessels in the region — including eight warships, three amphibious vessels and a nuclear-powered submarine. Newly arrived cruisers USS Gettysburg and USS Lake Erie have joined other American ships already operating near Venezuelan waters.
When asked a few days ago whether the United States will go to war with Venezuela, President Trump responded, “I doubt it. I don’t think so. But they’ve been treating us very badly.” Still, a military buildup of the sort now underway contains its own logic. For those forces to hang around the Caribbean for a while and then disperse would be a rather embarrassing climb-down. One assumes that Trump would not assemble such forces unless he intends, in some fashion, to use them–or at least be prepared to use them if the threat of an attack fails to dislodge Maduro from power, as it in all likelihood will.
Does Trump want regime change in Venezuela? Of course he does, as we all should. The question is, what is he prepared to do to accomplish it? Given Trump’s aversion to war, the answer is more likely to involve covert actions and limited air strikes, in hopes of triggering an internal revolt, than a major attack. But Maduro has long hung on to power despite overwhelming unpopularity, and it seems doubtful that anything short of a substantial use of American power will unseat him.
So, as Trump likes to say, we will have to see what happens.
